- The Green Bay Packers are 7-4 against the spread, while the Eagles are 4-7
- The over is 7-4 in Packers games and 4-7 in Eagles games
There is no way to sugar coat it, the Green Bay Packers are arguably the most frustrating team in the NFL right now. They sit a top the NFC North with an 8-3 record, but their performances week-to-week are impossible to decipher. In the last three weeks, they have blown out the Bears, given up a 14-point lead against the Colts to lose and played down to the level of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
After a 31 point offensive showing in Week 11, there was concern they might struggle against a strong Bears defense, but the Packers racked up 41 points as the Bears offense mounted little threat until deep into the second half. That could be a script for how this game will go, but the memory of last year’s matchup between these two is haunting.
The Eagles came out and ran the ball hard at the Packers, dominating them on the ground on the way to a win. With the offensive line woes, the Eagles have, it will not be as easy this year, but they may very well give it a good go. Even David Montgomery managed to accumulate 100 rushing yards on this Packers run defense.
The most likely way I see this game going is similar to the way the Packers game played out in Week 11. The Packers jump out to an early lead and are in command in the third quarter. They then ease their foot off the gas and Eagles come swooping back in for a last-minute cover, much how they managed on the closing line in Week 11 against the Seahawks.
The Packers pass defense is in the bottom half of the league in net passing yards per attempt and rushing yards per attempt this season. The Eagles should be able to find success moving the ball at some point in this game. It likely won’t be enough to win the game but it could easily be enough to cover. The season statistics tell me this is a spot to take the Packers, but the Eagles have shown a few times they will fight until the final whistle and for that reason give me the Eagles getting the points.
In terms of the total, the game script I foresee happening would lean itself to another over for the Packers this season. The weather will be cold in Green Bay, but the wind is below 15 MPH and there should not be any rain or snow. Both teams should be able to move the ball with minimal issues and 50-plus points is on the cards.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Philadelphia Eagles +9 @ -106
1u – Over 46.5 points @ -110
NFL Free Picks
We don't have a Thursday Night Football clash this week due to the rescheduled Ravens and Steelers game that took place at the end of Week 12. Week 13 sees a number of divisional clashes with the Saints and Falcons, Colts and Texans, and Rams and Cardinals meeting on Sunday. Sunday Night Football sees the Broncos face the Chiefs in a divisional clash on primetime. On Monday we'll get two games with the Washington Football Team's trip to Pittsburgh televised ahead of the Bills vs. 49ers meeting on Monday Night Football. We get bonus football again on Tuesday with the Ravens welcoming the Cowboys to M&T Bank Stadium.
Our talented stable of handicappers, led by Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson, Ben Rolfe and more brings complete written and video NFL analysis to our users week after week. Make sure you check the site daily for picks from them all.