- 6 of the Dolphins last 7 games as favorites have gone under the total points line
The Bengals haven't looked great since Joe Burrow had his season ended by injury. That's no surprise and it's understandable given the level at which the first overall pick had been playing this season. The Bengals ended up scoring 9 points in the Washington game in which he was injured and only managed 17 last time out too against the Giants.
With the line being set with Miami as 11.5 point favorites, the bookies believe the Bengals will score 15 or 16 points here with the Dolphins scoring 26 or 27. Do those numbers really stack up?
The Dolphins defense has been sneaky good this year. Last week they only gave up 3 points, and although that was against the Jets, there was a lot to be impressed by. I can't see the Bengals getting near 16 points, and likewise the Dolphins have only scored 33 points in their last 2 games against the Broncos and Jets. That's not an offense firing on all cylinders and I believe that they'll struggle to put up the 27 points the bookies expect here.
With both sides likely to underwhelm the books' ideas of how many points they'll put up, then you need to be taking the under here. It's worth noting that in 6 of the last 7 games when Miami have been favorites, the total has gone under. Expect that trend to continue again.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Under 42.5 @ -107
NFL Free Picks
We don't have a Thursday Night Football clash this week due to the rescheduled Ravens and Steelers game that took place at the end of Week 12. Week 13 sees a number of divisional clashes with the Saints and Falcons, Colts and Texans, and Rams and Cardinals meeting on Sunday. Sunday Night Football sees the Broncos face the Chiefs in a divisional clash on primetime. On Monday we'll get two games with the Washington Football Team's trip to Pittsburgh televised ahead of the Bills vs. 49ers meeting on Monday Night Football. We get bonus football again on Tuesday with the Ravens welcoming the Cowboys to M&T Bank Stadium.
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