- The Browns have the best rushing attack in the NFL (161.4 YPG)
I feel like I’ve had a pretty good grasp of who the Tennessee Titans are this season. Early in the year, I felt sportsbooks were overrating them, so I tended to fade them. The past few weeks, following a few disappointing results, the oddsmakers did a complete 180 and started totally undervaluing Tennessee. I’ve been backing them for a few weeks now, but I think this week is a good opportunity to go the other way.
To clarify, I think they win this game. Cleveland is not a very consistent team and Baker Mayfield is a large part of the reason for that. But, these are two teams that love to run the ball and do it well. I see a low-scoring, tight game that eventually the Titans pull off in the end, but six points seems like too many to be laying here.
The Browns are one of the hardest teams to read in the NFL. They’re 8-3, so you’d assume they look great every week, but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen them firing on all cylinders. Last week, they beat a terrible Jaguars team by 2. The week before it was a back-and-forth game with the Eagles and three weeks ago they beat a bad Houston team by 3.
But, the Browns are the best rushing offense in football, averaging 161.4 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee has a middle-of-the-pack rush defense, ranking 17th in the NFL, so I think Cleveland will be able to have their way with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt racking up the carries.
The Titans are the NFL’s 2nd best rush offense, but Cleveland only allows 108.2 yards per game, good for 9th in the league. Their better-than-average defense, along with the return of Myles Garrett, will let them hang around.
I thought about going with Browns outright here, but I just don’t think Baker Mayfield is a good enough thrower to allow his team to pull off the upset. Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown have proven to be an explosive QB-WR tandem, and Cleveland doesn’t have that, and I think that’ll be the difference in a close game.
NFL Expert Picks
Browns +6 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
We don't have a Thursday Night Football clash this week due to the rescheduled Ravens and Steelers game that took place at the end of Week 12. Week 13 sees a number of divisional clashes with the Saints and Falcons, Colts and Texans, and Rams and Cardinals meeting on Sunday. Sunday Night Football sees the Broncos face the Chiefs in a divisional clash on primetime. On Monday we'll get two games with the Washington Football Team's trip to Pittsburgh televised ahead of the Bills vs. 49ers meeting on Monday Night Football. We get bonus football again on Tuesday with the Ravens welcoming the Cowboys to M&T Bank Stadium.
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