Week 13 Monday Night Football Picks: Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers Prop Bets
Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers Predictions
Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer @ +160
Allen is one of the more underrated dual-threat QBs in the NFL. He has 311 rushing yards this season and six rushing touchdowns, including three touchdowns on the ground in his last four games. The San Francisco secondary got Richard Sherman back last week and will make it tough for Allen to get completions everywhere, especially in the red zone.
I think either a QB sneak or a rollout ending in him taking it himself could result in a touchdown and I love the +160 price we’re getting on it. I also think this game goes over the total, so we should have a few chances to cash in on this one.
Raheem Mostert Over 56.5 Rushing Yards @ -110
The next two picks I’m giving out follow the same reasoning for both. That reasoning is the fact that Nick Mullens is bad, so San Francisco will be forced to lean on a good run game in order to move the ball. This total seems a bit low for me, for a few reasons, so I’m hopping on it.
Mostert is averaging 69.2 rush yards per game, despite just 43 yards last week against the Rams. Buffalo’s run defense has been bad this season, allowing 129.6 yards per game to opponents, which ranks 24th in the NFL.
I think this is one of those props that has the chance to hit in the 2nd or 3rd quarter based on how good Mostert is and how bad the Bills have been at stopping the run.
Nick Mullens Under 246.5 @ -105
As I’ve mentioned, Nick Mullens is bad. I bet the entire Chicago-Detroit game this week based on the fact that Mitch Trubisky stinks, and I’m doing something similar with Mullens.
Five QBs have thrown for more than 247 yards on the Bills, but it’s only happened twice since Week 4, courtesy of Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert. After a slow start to the season, the Buffalo pass defense has held its own against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill and Kyler Murray, and Mullens is nowhere near as talented as those guys.
If the Niners are going to gash the Bills it’ll be on the ground with Mostert, not over the top.
NFL Expert Picks
Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer @ +160
Raheem Mostert Over 56.5 Rushing Yards @ -110
Nick Mullens Under 246.5 @ -105
NFL Free Picks
Week 13 saw a number of divisional clashes with the Saints and Falcons, Colts and Texans, and Rams and Cardinals meeting on Sunday. Sunday Night Football gave us a back-and-forth game between the Chiefs and Broncos, and tonight we get two games, with the Washington Football Team's trip to Pittsburgh ahead of the Bills vs. 49ers meeting on Monday Night Football. We get bonus football again on Tuesday with the Ravens welcoming the Cowboys to M&T Bank Stadium.
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