- Philip Rivers’ average depth of target in 2020 is 6.8 yards, ranking 27th in the NFL
I think the public is going to be all over the Colts here. Las Vegas is coming off two terrible showings against the Falcons and Jets, the latter of which should have been a loss. They don’t look like the team that started the year 7-3 and handed the Chiefs their only loss, but that’s why I love them to cover here.
I think this is a great spot for a major bounce back game for the Raiders. I considered going with them moneyline at +140, but I’m going to do the responsible thing and take the points.
The Raiders are finally back at home, where they’re 3-2 ATS this season. Indianapolis got a miracle cover last week thanks to a low snap in Houston with time winding down that would have made them outright losers.
To be completely honest, Indianapolis is overrated. The best quarterback on the roster is Frank Reich, and he hasn’t taken a snap since I was in fourth grade.
Philip Rivers, while playing better lately, is not what he used to be. Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines are all decent weapons but they’re limited by Rivers’ inability to get the ball down the field.
This season, Rivers’ average depth of target is 6.8 yards, ranking 27th in the NFL. He’s fourth in the NFL in YAC per completion at 6.0 yards, meaning his skill players are doing most of the work. On one hand, that’s a positive for Indy. The weapons they’ve put around him are all capable playmakers. But it shows a lack of playmaking ability from the guy under center.
Las Vegas’ offense sputtered against Atlanta in an absolute blowout loss, but like I said, I like this as a bounce back game with Josh Jacobs potentially returning to the lineup. Plus, I expect 70+% of the public to be on the Colts and it’s never a bad thing to fade the public.
NFL Expert Picks
Raiders +3 @ -112
NFL Free Picks
Thursday Night Football is back this week as the Patriots and Rams clash in Los Angeles in primetime on FOX. Sunday features a ton of can't-miss games, like Chiefs vs. Dolphins, Vikings vs. Buccaneers, Cardinals vs. Giants and Colts vs. Raiders, to name a few. The Steelers, fresh off their first loss of the season, travel to Buffalo for Sunday Night Football before an AFC North clash between the Ravens and Browns on Monday Night Football closes out Week 14.
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