- Green Bay is 8-4 ATS this year
On the surface, I don’t have much of a read on this game. It’s a tough division matchup and could be close or could get out of hand early. Having said that, there are some interesting numbers that make me think the Packers will cover in Week 14.
Detroit is coming off a massive come-from-behind effort against the Bears in their first game since firing their head coach and general manager. But in general this is not a good team this season. The offense should be having more success than it it, but has struggled at points, especially when it comes to covering the spread.
Detroit is 5-7 against the spread this year, and only four teams have a worse ATS record through Week 13. Meanwhile, Green Bay is one of the best teams to bet on in 2020. The Packers are 8-4 against the spread.
Part of what makes this game so tricky is the current spread. At 7.5, a touchdown win for Green Bay leaves you with a brutal loss. Ideally, you monitor the line as we get close to Sunday and pounce if it drops a half point to 7, but I still like 7.5.
Green Bay destroyed the Lions in their first meeting this season, after falling behind 14-3 early before coming out with a 42-21 win. Aaron Jones was crucial in the Week 2 blowout, rushing 18 times for 168 yards and 2 TD.
The Lions are better than their record shows, and they are hopefully getting standout rookie running back DeAndre Swift back, but the Packers are a different breed. It won't be as one-sided as their first meeting, but Aaron Rodgers is back to playing MVP-caliber football and I expect that to continue.
NFL Expert Picks
Packers -7.5 @ -106
NFL Free Picks
Week 14 gets underway tonight with a Thursday Night Football clash between the Patriots and the Rams. We have another chance to see Bill Belichick face off with Sean McVay. The gameweek ends with that huge divisional clash between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football that we're all waiting for! In between we have a full slate of games, with a number of divisional games and big matchups. Elsewhere we're set to see Jalen Hurts first start for the Philadelphia Eagles who have announced him as the starter this week.
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