- The Miami Dolphins have the best ATS record in the NFL at 9-3
- The under is 8-4 in Packers games and 5-7 in Chiefs games
This game is a mouth-watering proposition given the situation in the AFC and the way both of these teams have been playing recently. The matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs last week, may have given an indication as to how this game will go.
The Patriots, Broncos, and Chargers have given the defensive blueprint to holding the Chiefs under 30 points, but none of those offenses have been able to capitalize. We know that Brian Flores’ defense is a similar style to that in New England, so can he restrict this Chiefs offense to around 25 points?
The Dolphins have allowed over 30 points just three times this season, and only once in the six weeks since their bye. They held the Jets and Bengals to just 10 combined points, but that is not really a challenge. However, they held the Rams, Chargers and Broncos to an average of just 19.3 points per game. The Rams and the Chargers in particular have offense that can put up points, so holding them to just 17 and 21 respectively is impressive.
The Chiefs offense struggled for consistency in Week 13, posting just 22 points. There was a noticeable absence of the run game, which they may look to use more of against a Dolphins team that allows sixth-most yards per attempt on the ground. If the Chiefs have to go to the air, it will be interesting to see how Flores deploys his defensive backs to try and neutralize the Chiefs weapons.
The concern comes offensively for the Doilphins, who are going to struggle to put up 30 points offensively against a defense that ranks sixth in the league in points allowed. That ultimately could the difference between the Dolphins making this close or not. They have not scored over 20 points in the last three weeks, and I am not sure they break that streak this week.
My belief is that the Dolphins can do enough defensively to restrict the Chiefs to around 23-25 points, but I struggle to see them getting much above 20-21 points themselves. That would put the under in play, with the Dolphins covering the spread. However, the way I am playing this game is to put it in a teaser, taking the Chiefs down to -1 and pairing it with another game I like as part of that teaser.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Miami Dolphins +7 @ -106
Teaser: Kansas City Chiefs -1 (combined with another play)
NFL Free Picks
Week 14 gets underway tonight with a Thursday Night Football clash between the Patriots and the Rams. We have another chance to see Bill Belichick face off with Sean McVay. The gameweek ends with that huge divisional clash between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football that we're all waiting for! In between we have a full slate of games, with a number of divisional games and big matchups. Elsewhere we're set to see Jalen Hurts first start for the Philadelphia Eagles who have announced him as the starter this week.
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