Cam Newton Under 180.5 Yards Passing @ -110
This one kind of seems like a layup to me. Cam Newton is averaging just over 186 passing yards per game this season. Meanwhile, the Rams allow the fewest passing yards to opposing QBs in the entire NFL.
At -110, I can get the best pass defense in the league to hold a below-average passer to six fewer yards than his season average? Sign me up. I expect New England to rely heavily on the ground game Thursday if they want to have any chance of winning.
Cam Newton, Damien Harris, Sony Michel and James White can all get it done on the ground, there’s no reason to try and force it through the air against this defensive unit.
Jared Goff Over 35.5 Passing Attempts @ -102
Another one where I’m going to play the averages here. Goff averages 37.5 passing attempts per game this season, and has thrown fewer than 36 times just once in the Rams’ last five games.
This New England defense allows over 240 passing yards per game on the road this year, and I don’t think Goff will have any problem picking them apart. I’m looking for big games from both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp tonight, but I like this prop more than I like Goff's passing yards prop because it doesn’t rely on him delivering good throws, just Sean McVay’s tendencies.
Damien Harris Over 11.5 Rushes @ -146
Damien Harris has been awesome this year for New England. He’s averaging a massive 5.1 yards per carry on 126 rushes, and his 641 yards lead the Patriots. In the New England’s last six games, he’s rushed fewer than 12 times just once, when he had 11 rushes in a loss to Houston.
As I mentioned below, the Rams’ passing defense is the best in the NFL. Not only do I expect the Pats to come in with a run-heavy gameplan, but when they do throw it I expect a high rate of failure on their end. We should see a ton of rushes from New England tonight and Harris is their best rusher. I wish the price was a little better, but I’m still comfortable paying up on this one.