- The under has hit in four of six games in Denver this season
- The Denver Broncos rank 29th in points scored and 23rd in points allowed
This game has the potential to end up looking very much like one of those late season games where one team has everything to play for and the other team very little. However, the Broncos have a lot of subplots going on within their franchise. Is Drew Lock a franchise quarterback? What moves does the team to make offensively and defensively in the offseason?
Those elements likely come together to make the Broncos a competitive team at home against the Bills in Week 15. The Bills rank 22nd in the league in terms of yards per attempt to the running game. That should be an area the Broncos look to exploit, but there is a chance they could be without Melvin Gordon this week, hampering their efforts.
The Bills should be able to be effective against the Broncos passing game. The Broncos average a net of just six yards per passing attempt. Overall, offensively, they average just 5.2 yards per play, the joint-ninth worst number in the league. The other concerning element is that on a per drive basis, they rank in the bottom five in points, yards, plays and time. On top of that, they rank in the bottom 10 in terms of third-down and red-zone conversions.
As for the Bills offense, the Broncos’ loss of AJ Bouye will be a tremendous advantage. Bouye would have been able to negate one of the Bills receivers reasonably effectively and left the rest of the defense to focus on the other weapons. Instead, the Broncos are left working out how they will neutralize Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley.
While the Broncos offense ranks in the bottom 10 in yards per play, the Bills offense is top 10 (5.9). The Bills also rank in the top 10 in yards, points, plays and time per drive. They are also extremely effective on third down (third-best at 49.3%). However, one concerning element is they convert on their red-zone attempts just 58.5% of the time (18th-best).
The Bills should be able to move the ball with ease in this one and the key will then be about whether the Broncos can restrict them to field goals instead of touchdowns. If they can, then this could be a close game, but realistically, the most likely way the Broncos cover the spread is if the Bills let their guard down late.
The Bills have won four of their last five by 10 points and they should be able to do that on Saturday. Not only would I look to take the Bills to cover, but I will also tease their line down to -.05 and use them as one leg of a teaser.
In terms of the total, 50 points is very high. Now, the weather in Denver will be chilly but no extreme conditions. That should play into the hands of a reasonably high scoring game. However, only two games this season have seen over 50 points scored and I am not sure the Broncos offense can sustain enough drives to get over 20 points. Take the under on 50 points, but also consider taking the total to 56 as part of your teaser.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Buffalo Bills -6.5 @ -110
1u – Under 50 points @ -110
NFL Free Picks
What a Week 15 we have in store. It's not a blockbuster week for the traditional primetime slots. Thursday Night Football gives us the Chargers at Raiders, Sunday Night Football is Browns at Giants and Monday Night Football sees the Steelers travelling into Cincy to face the Bengals. While those games may not be fantastic the fact we have two Saturday games. First up is Bills at Bengals, followed by Panthers at Packers. Outside of those games we have some interesting clashes elsewhere. The Seahawks enter Washington as favorites but it'll be a tough ask against a defense who are really coming into form. The Eagles are giving Jalen Hurts another chance to perform against the Cardinals in a battle between two former Sooners quarterbacks. We also have the Chiefs against the Saints. It's going to be a fun week of football.
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