- The Detroit Lions allow 132.8 rushing yards per game and 1.62 rushing touchdowns per game
- The Tennessee Titans rank third in yards per attempt and fourth in net passing yards per attempt
Whether Matthew Stafford is on the field or not, this matchup should suit the Titans offense. The Lions defense is one of the worst in the league, allowing the joint third most yards per play in the league (6.0).
The defense is bad across the board. They rank in the bottom 10 in points, yards, plays and time per drive. They struggle against both the run and the pass (7.4 net passing yards per attempt). No defense in the league is giving up more first downs than this Lions defense, and only three allow more yards and points.
As for the Titans offense, they play risk, free high efficiency football. They have committed just nine turnovers on the season (best in the league) and average 2.77 points and 37.1 yards per drive (both third best). In the red zone, they convert 73.1 percent of their opportunities into touchdowns. There should be very little doubt that the Titans can move the ball and score points in this matchup.
However, the Titans defense is also not the most reliable in the league. They have allowed 336 points (12th most) and 5037 yards (seventh most). The Titans defense is why it is crucial whether Matt Stafford is active as to how this game shapes up. With Stafford, the Lions should be able to move the ball with efficiency, but without him, it becomes a very different proposition
The Titans defense is vulnerable. They are the worst defense in the league on preventing third-down conversions, and the third worst when it comes to red-zone defense. They allow 2.45 points per drive (24th), 36.6 yards per drive (28th), and 6.6 plays per drive (31st). They also allow 6.6 net passing yards per attempt (22nd), meaning Stafford should be able to make plays.
That is why this line is in limbo with the Titans as 10-point favorites and the total at 50. If Stafford is active, that line likely dips to around a touchdown and the total jumps a handful of points. However, if Chase Daniel is the clear starter, the line could climb as high as 14 points by kick off while the total could drop into the mid-40s.
10 points is a lot to lay with any team, especially one with a defense as bad as Titans can look. However, betting that line with the uncertainty of Daniel or Stafford is not something I am willing to do. Ultimately, if Daniel is the starter, I will look to use the Titans as a leg of a 10-point tease, taking their line down to around three points. If Stafford is active I will look to put the Titans in a six-point tease, taking the line down to around one to three points.
Equally if Stafford is active, I am going to look to take the over on total points. However, for now the play here is to find a line on the Titans points and take the over on anything up to around 30 points. However, at the time of writing, there are limited lines on this game due to the uncertainty surrounding Stafford and his availability.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Tennessee Titans over 28.5 points
NFL Free Picks
What a Week 15 we have in store. It's not a blockbuster week for the traditional primetime slots. Thursday Night Football gives us the Chargers at Raiders, Sunday Night Football is Browns at Giants and Monday Night Football sees the Steelers travelling into Cincy to face the Bengals. While those games may not be fantastic the fact we have two Saturday games. First up is Bills at Bengals, followed by Panthers at Packers. Outside of those games we have some interesting clashes elsewhere. The Seahawks enter Washington as favorites but it'll be a tough ask against a defense who are really coming into form. The Eagles are giving Jalen Hurts another chance to perform against the Cardinals in a battle between two former Sooners quarterbacks. We also have the Chiefs against the Saints. It's going to be a fun week of football.
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