- The Jaguars have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games against AFC North opponents
There's no beating around the bush here, 13 points is a very large spread. The Ravens looked very good at times against the Browns on Monday Night Football and are in the position that they have to win this game, so it's easy to see why the books have given the Jags 13 points.
That said, I'm very much of the belief that the Jaguars, even with nothing to play for, will hang within 13 points here. They've lost by 11 or more points in 6 games this year, keeping far closer in the remaining 8.
The Jags rushing defense isn't great, and although Derrick Henry went off on them last week, they previously did a relatively good job of not letting games against Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb not get out of hand.
Jacksonville are at their best in big, physical games, which plays into Doug Marrone's style. That is going to hold them in a good position here, and I think that they'll easily manage to stay within 13 points of Lamar Jackson's Ravens.
If you look at the total here, it looks like the books would expect this game to finish around 30-17. Jacksonville have only let an opponent reach 30 points once in the past 6 games, which shows just how much they've improved.
Make no mistake, the Ravens will win this one, but with a 13 point head start, I'd be taking the Jaguars, who are strong and physical enough to keep this game close.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Jaguars +13 @ -106
NFL Free Picks
What a Week 15 we have in store. It's not a blockbuster week for the traditional primetime slots. Thursday Night Football gives us the Chargers at Raiders, Sunday Night Football is Browns at Giants and Monday Night Football sees the Steelers travelling into Cincy to face the Bengals. While those games may not be fantastic the fact we have two Saturday games. First up is Bills at Bengals, followed by Panthers at Packers. Outside of those games we have some interesting clashes elsewhere. The Seahawks enter Washington as favorites but it'll be a tough ask against a defense who are really coming into form. The Eagles are giving Jalen Hurts another chance to perform against the Cardinals in a battle between two former Sooners quarterbacks. We also have the Chiefs against the Saints. It's going to be a fun week of football.
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