- The Saints have topped 250 passing yards just once sine losing Drew Brees through injury
- The Kansas City Chiefs average 31 points per game this season
This matchup could easily be a Super Bowl preview as the Saints and Chiefs go head to head. The Saints offense has somewhat stumbled their way through the past four weeks with Taysom Hill under center and it is hard to see how they can stay with the Chiefs offense in this game. Even with Drew Brees active, the Saints star QB will be limited through injury and rustiness.
With Brees, the Saints were averaging 30.5 points per game, but have averaged just 24.8 in the last five games without him. The positive for the Saints is that the Chiefs have been vulnerable on the ground, allowing 4.7 yards per attempt (29th). If Hill, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray can control the game on the ground, the Saints defense should be able to stay fresh and provide pressure to Patrick Mahomes upfront and in the secondary.
The Chiefs defense has been a successful unit this season. They rank second against the run and fifth against the pass in terms of yards per attempt. However, the only player they have faced with the quality of Mahomes at the QB position was Aaron Rodgers, who posted 37 points against them.
The Saints defense does have the makeup to challenge the Chiefs. In the likes of Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson, they haver the pass rushers to get in the face of Mahomes, while having the weapons on the back end to restrict the passing weapons of the Chiefs. The issue becomes in covering all those weapons, and the Saints lack the depth to take away four or five passing weapons on every play.
This is a game that should be extremely entertaining, but with Taysom Hill under center, the Saints offense is a limited entity. The only game they went over 30 points with him at the helm was Week 12, when the Broncos had no QB and their defense wore down. The Saints need to be able to post 25-30 points to challenge this Chiefs team, and I am not sure they can do that.
The Chiefs -4 at between +100 and +110 offers great value but is also in the range where you can tease the Saints up to +10 and back them that way. With Taysom Hill under center the Saints offense is capped at around 24 points, making a total of 51.5 the highest I can see this game going. I am tempted to lay a unit on that total, but I may also look to tease it up to 57.5. However, there is value in a teaser taking the total either to 45.5 and taking the over, or going to 57.5 and taking the under.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Kansas City Chiefs -4 @ +110
NFL Free Picks
What a Week 15 we have in store. It's not a blockbuster week for the traditional primetime slots. Thursday Night Football gives us the Chargers at Raiders, Sunday Night Football is Browns at Giants and Monday Night Football sees the Steelers travelling into Cincy to face the Bengals. While those games may not be fantastic the fact we have two Saturday games. First up is Bills at Bengals, followed by Panthers at Packers. Outside of those games we have some interesting clashes elsewhere. The Seahawks enter Washington as favorites but it'll be a tough ask against a defense who are really coming into form. The Eagles are giving Jalen Hurts another chance to perform against the Cardinals in a battle between two former Sooners quarterbacks. We also have the Chiefs against the Saints. It's going to be a fun week of football.
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