- The Los Angeles Rams are 8-5 against the spread this season, while the Jets are 4-9
- The under has hit 10 of the 26 games these two teams have been involved in this season
No matter what statistical measure you use, the New York Jets are among the worst teams in the league across the board. The only things the Jets rank in the top 10 at are not fumbling the ball, preventing teams scoring touchdowns in the red zone, and holding opponents to just 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.
The defense has been bad, but the real issue this season has been the offense. The Jets rank last in points scored, yards gained, first downs, passing yards, scoring percentage, yards per drive, and points per drive. That is not even to list the categories such as plays per drive and rushing touchdowns that they rank as the second worst team in the league at.
The problems have manifested on third down and in the red zone. With a conversion rate of just 32.9 percent, the Jets rank 31st on third down. They also turn just 40 percent of their red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, the worst in the league b significant distance. The difference between the Jets offense and the Atlanta Falcons (31st) in the red zone, is the same as the difference between the Falcons and the Los Angeles Chargers at 21st.
That is a significant problem when facing a Rams defense that ranks in the top 10 across the board defensively. They lead the league in yards allowed, net yards per passing attempt, passing touchdowns, yards per drive and, points per drive. The Jets have failed to score double digits in five games this season, including three of their past six.
Offensively the Rams have been a mix. But they have found a groove since the bye. They have topped 100 rushing yards in four of their last five and averaged 26.4 points per game. Their passing game has been extremely mixed and they are prone to a disastrous day when it comes to turning the ball over. A concerning element is that the Rams have turned the ball over in every game this season, ranking 25th in the league in committing turnovers.
17.5 points is too much to lay with any team, even when the Jets are the underdog. Could the Rams cover? Absolutely, but a spread that wide is susceptible to being covered by a late breakdown in coverage or a special teams play. This game is a prime candidate to tease down to 7.5 points as part of a 10-point teaser.
The plays here centre around the total. The Jets are unlikely to get much over 10 points and the Rams offense is not one that looks to post 35-40 simply for the fun of it. Therefore, take the under on the 44.5 total and look to add the Jets under 12.5 as an option.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Under 44.5 total points @ -105
NFL Free Picks
What a Week 15 we have in store. It's not a blockbuster week for the traditional primetime slots. Thursday Night Football gives us the Chargers at Raiders, Sunday Night Football is Browns at Giants and Monday Night Football sees the Steelers travelling into Cincy to face the Bengals. While those games may not be fantastic the fact we have two Saturday games. First up is Bills at Bengals, followed by Panthers at Packers. Outside of those games we have some interesting clashes elsewhere. The Seahawks enter Washington as favorites but it'll be a tough ask against a defense who are really coming into form. The Eagles are giving Jalen Hurts another chance to perform against the Cardinals in a battle between two former Sooners quarterbacks. We also have the Chiefs against the Saints. It's going to be a fun week of football.
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