- The Baltimore Ravens have averaged 40.3 points per game in the last three
- The New York Giants last three games have seen 36 points or fewer scored
Three weeks ago, this game looked like it could be a really interesting affair. The Ravens offense was struggling, and the Giants defense was performing well against the run. However, three weeks can certainly change a lot of things in the NFL, and they have.
The Ravens offense came out of their game against the Steelers and took it opposing defenses. They racked up 34 against the Cowboys, 47 against the Browns, and 40 against the Jaguars. In that time, they have averaged 228 yards on the ground as teams have struggled to contain their run game. Now granted those three defenses are, at best, mediocre, but it has still be impressive from a team once languishing at 6-5 and struggling to score points.
The story for the Giants has been quite the opposite. Heading into their bye, the offense was clicking. Six straight games of 20 points or more is hardly exciting, but for the Giants that has been a good return in 2020. However, since their bye, things have been tough. Daniel Jones was injured in Week 12, and the Giants have scored a total of 3 points in the last two weeks.
Equally, their defense has been falling apart. Now part of that will be because of the pressure their offense has loaded on them, but that is hardly about to fix itself in Week 16. Having allowed over 100 yards rushing just four times in the first 11 weeks, they have allowed three straight 100-yard rushing performances. Facing the Ravens is a bad time for your run defense to be wobbling.
The problem for the Giants is there offense is just depleted. Even with Daniel Jones, they struggle to get to 30 points. Without him, they have next to no chance with Colt McCoy under center. There is only one way this matchup is going, and it is not good for the Giants. While 10.5 is more than I like to lay it is a number I am all over this week.
If you do not feel comfortable going that high, then a teaser is perfect for this game. Take the Ravens down to -4.5 and pair them with one other team or take them down to -0.5 and find two other teams you like in a 10-point tease. This line leaves plenty of options.
In terms of the total, it is hard to think anything but under with the Giants offense on the field. However, the Ravens scored 40 by themselves the past two weeks, so 45 is certainly in play. With Daniel Jones’ status unknown, there is limited props available at time of writing. If you can find the Ravens team total under 30, then I am jumping on the over. Equally, if the Giants line is available over 15, that is an easy decision to take the under as well.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Baltimore Ravens -10.5 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
It's a festive week and we have plenty of football to get stuck into. There's no Thursday Night Football this week but we have the Vikings travel to New Orleans to face the Saints on Christmas Day. Saturday gives us a triple threat of football to wager on. The Bucs can secure playoffs if they beat the Lions. Elsewhere the Dolphins face the Raiders and the 49ers play the Cardinals.
Sunday sees a number of matches with playoff implications, the Rams @ Seahawks being the most important. We'll also see the Jets and Jaguars play, with fans of the New Yorkers praying that Jacksonville wins and puts them back in the hotseat for Trevor Lawrence. The Titans face the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. Monday's game is a dead rubber in all reality, as the Bills travel to play the Patriots, with New England officially out of playoff contention.
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