- The Jaguars are 6-9 ATS including failing to cover in their last three
- The over has hit in the Jaguars last two games
The matchup between the Colts and Jaguars may be my favorite game to wager on this week. The Colts are fighting desperately hard for a playoff spot, while the Jaguars players are fighting for their spot on the roster. This could be one of a few games where we see both teams compete hard until the final moments.
Offensively the Jaguars have been a mess. They have scored just 41 points in their last three. Their run game had been their calling card, but with James Robinson already ruled out, they will be turning to their backup options. Additionally, they will be starting Mike Glennon whose numbers have been mediocre as the Jaguars starters.
The Colts defense crumbled in the second half last week, but generally they have been strong this season. The numbers do not emphasize the strength that we have seen at times from this defense. However, while they appear to be a slightly above average unit, they are talented enough to shut down this Jaguars offense. They restricted the Texans to 20 points in both meetings this season, and should be able to keep the Jaguars to around that number.
Offensively, this game should be perfect for the Colts. The Jaguars defense has been embarrassed in the past two games. Meanwhile, the Colts have scored 24 or more points in every game since Week 10. Their struggles have tended to come when they lean too heavily on the passing game, so look for a balanced offense with rookie Jonathan Taylor shouldering the load.
The Jaguars defense has allowed over 100 rushing yards in 13 of their 15 games. In their last six, they have allowed over 100 rushing yards in ever game, including over 200 against the Titans and Browns. The Colts offense should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in a number of statistics.
14 points is a lot to give up against the spread, but the Jaguars have lost the last three by an average of 23.7 points per game. Additionally, the Colts are going to be playing hard all game in the hope that one of the other teams in the playoff picture struggles. My main recommendation for this game is to tease this down to eight or four points as part of a teaser.
In terms of the total, the over feels in play at 49. However, the Jaguars motivation late in this game might wane. The Colts proved against the Raiders that they can be ruthless, racking up 44 points. The over feels like the right play here.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Over 49 Total Points @ -108
NFL Free Picks
2020 is in the books and we're starting 2021 with the final week of the NFL regular season, as the playoff places and playoff order are finally locked up. Every game is on Sunday this week with Sunday Night Football being the NFC East clash between the Washington Football Team and the Philadelphia Eagles. On Sunday we have a number on win-and-in games, where a victory would see playoff football. Nearly every game has something riding on it, be it playoff seeding, or players playing for their futures. It's a big week.
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