- The Miami Dolphins are 11-4 ATS, while the Buffalo Bills are 10-5
- The over has hit 10 times in Bills games, but just six times in Miami games
There are so many unknowns around this game in terms of what we might see. The Bills could pull their starters during the game if they think they have the second seed locked up. They could also be motivated to eliminate their division rivals from coming back to haunt them in the playoffs.
This is a game of good offense meets good defense and mediocre offense meets mediocre defense. The Bills rank in the top five in yards, net yards per passing attempt, points per game, yards per game, and score percentage. They are also extremely good on third down, converting on 50.3% of their opportunities, as well as on 80% of fourth down opportunities.
However, the Dolphins defense may very well be a matchup for them. The Dolphins lead the league in turnovers and points allowed. They also rank in the top five in points per drive, third down conversion rate and red zone conversion percentage. The Bills offense has not scored under 25 points since Week 8, but the Dolphins have only allowed over 25 points once since Week 9.
Offensively, the Dolphins struggle to move the ball consistency. They rank in the bottom half in a number of offensive statistics, including net yards per passing attempt, yards per rush attempt, and points per drive. They also rank 24th in third down conversion percentage and red zone conversion rate.
However, the Bills offense have their struggles. They rank in the bottom half in rushing yards per attempt, points allowed per drive, red zone conversion percentage and third down conversion percentage. However, the Bills defense has been solid recently. After allowing 66 points in two games combined heading into the bye, they have allowed just 84 points in their last five games.
On the surface this game looks like one where you expect the Dolphins offense to be able to step up. However, the Dolphins offense has played conservative football with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. Therefore, the play here is to back the Bills, but do so with caution, because the Bills may decide that beating their division rivals is not important in the grand scheme of things.
In terms of points, I expect this to be a relatively low scoring affair. However, 42.5 is a very low number in itself. I can see this game ending 24-20 or 24-17, landing right around this total. I would avoid playing anything on the total in this game.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ +100
NFL Free Picks
2020 is in the books and we're starting 2021 with the final week of the NFL regular season, as the playoff places and playoff order are finally locked up. Every game is on Sunday this week with Sunday Night Football being the NFC East clash between the Washington Football Team and the Philadelphia Eagles. On Sunday we have a number on win-and-in games, where a victory would see playoff football. Nearly every game has something riding on it, be it playoff seeding, or players playing for their futures. It's a big week.
Our talented stable of handicappers, led by Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson, Ben Rolfe and more brings complete written and video NFL analysis to our users week after week. Make sure you check the site daily for picks from them all.