Ben Rolfe is back on OddsChecker this week with parlays for Saturday and Sunday of the NFL Wild Card Round. Here is his Sunday Parlay.
This matchup sees two of the top 10 teams offensively in EPA/play over the past seven weeks. During that time, the Titans have been the second-best offense. They have ranked first in terms of the run game and second in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Ravens rank second in terms of their rushing offense, and 11th in the passing game.
However, the major concern for the Titans is on defense, where they have ranked 31st overall in the past seven weeks. However, their struggles have largely been against the pass game, where they rank as the second worst, with only the Lions below them.
The problem for the Ravens, is that their way of beating teams tends to be in the run game. If the Ravens are willing to commit to the pass, they should have a chance to win. However, when they have done that before it has not gone well for them.
This is an incredibly interesting game that could go either way. In a game where I can see both teams able to win, my tendency is to lean towards the underdog, especially if they are the home team. The three points likely do not make a difference to me, so I will add the Titans moneyline as the first part of my parlay.
This game is a big mismatch. Only one team in these playoffs has not ranked in the top 10 in either offense or defense in EPA/play, and that is the Chicago Bears. In contrast, the Saints rank in the top 10 defensively, and 11th offensively.
The Saints squeaked past the Bears on the road earlier this season. However, this Bears defense is not the same group in the last half of the season. The Saints have a chance to get a lot of their offense back this week. With Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, and Michael Thomas potentially back on the field, the Saints should have too much firepower.
10 points is a lot to lay in the playoffs, but this is a major mismatch. The Bears have been the third worse team, against the pass in those past seven weeks. Put the Saints -10 on your parlay but be prepared for a stressful end when this game being decided by 10-14 points late in the fourth quarter.
This matchup has been thrown up in the air with the news of the Browns losing players left, right, and center. Before those tests, I was leaning towards the Browns. Now with the Browns missing plenty of key players, as well as their head coach, it is tough to see how they can beat a Steelers team who rested key players in Week 17.
The Steelers have remained a top 10 defense over the past seven weeks, while the Browns have been a top 10 offense. The Browns defense has been good enough (15th), but without key players that changes entirely. My parlay for Sunday is likely to either be the Steelers’ moneyline, or be just a two-game parlay, leaving this one out entirely.
NFL Wild Card Round Parlay
1u: Titans ML, Saints -10 & Steelers ML @ +595
1u: Titans ML & Saints -10 @ +407
NFL Free Picks
Playoff football is finally here after a season which looked like it might not happen at one point. This expanded playoff structure has given us some exciting games. Saturday's Wild Card Round games see Colts @ Bills, in which Josh Allen will look to underline his MVP credentials. Rams @ Seahawks gives us a divisional clash and Bucs @ Washington sees the rookie Chase Young trying to rush the GOAT, Tom Brady. Sunday gives us another three fun games. The Ravens travel to Tennessee to face the Titans in a game between two of the best rushing attacks in the league. The Bears enter New Orleans as outsiders, then the Browns face the Steelers in another divisional game, and a rematch of their week 17 tie.
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