NFL Divisional Round Picks: Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

Ben Rolfe breaks down his prop picks for Saturday's Ravens vs. Bills game
Ben Rolfe
Thu, January 14, 11:05 AM

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Prop Bets And Predictions

Josh Allen could struggle throwing the ball

The Ravens defense has been superb against the pass in the last month. In the last four games they have allowed a combined 630 passing yards. With over 300 passing yards in the last four games, Allen has been proficient as a passer. However, none of those four defenses compare to that of the Ravens.

Additionally, there is expected to be some wind and precipitation during this game. Whether that will be snow is questionable, but with winds around 15 MPH expected, any precipitation on top of that will make passing the ball tough.

1u – Josh Allen under 302.5 passing yards @ -110

Will Allen contribute again with his legs?

Last week saw Josh Allen do something he has done rarely this season. He carried the ball double digit times for just the fourth time in 2020. With wind and rain around, the Bills may need to go back to that game plan again this week.

In three of those four games where Allen has double digit carries, he had topped 50 rushing yards. With a line set at 33.5, the over is extremely tempting in this one.

1u – Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards @ -115

Could Stefon Diggs be marginalized?

Early in the game last week we saw A.J. Brown have success against the Ravens defense. However, they adjusted and made life much more difficult. On the Titans second drive, Diggs had 52 receiving yards. However, he had just 31 receiving yards in the rest of the game. The Ravens are likely to focus on Diggs in this passing offense. Therefore, we could see him held to around 70 to 80 yards receiving as opposed to sailing over 100 as he has eight times this season.

Meanwhile, Marquise Brown could be player see succeed. The Bills may try and use their best defenders to take away the tight ends and the run game. Therefore, Brown could hit some big plays. 50 targets in the last seven games suggests the Ravens are making a concerted effort to get Brown the ball.

1u – Marquise Brown more receiving yards than Stefon Diggs @ +175

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Is there any value in the anytime touchdown markets?

With seven touchdowns on the season, Gabriel Davis to score at +300 appears to present some value. The Ravens will have to figure out how to use their two best corners against this Bills receiving group. Most likely, Peters or Humphreys will be on Diggs for every play. If Davis can see some nice matchups, he could have success.

Marquise Brown (+200) has also had some success finding the end zone recently. He has five touchdowns in his past seven games, having just scored two prior to that. He has seen 17 targets in the past two weeks and could be a candidate to find the end zone.

If he is active, Davonta Freeman (+2200) could be an interesting candidate to see some carries close to the goal line. Freeman has been brought in as cover for Zack Moss, who saw 30 red-zone carries this season.

NFL Expert Picks

1u – Josh Allen under 302.5 passing yards @ -110

1u – Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards @ -115

1u – Marquise Brown more receiving yards than Stefon Diggs @ +175

1u – Gabriel Davis Anytime TD Scorer @ +2200

1u – Davonta Freeman Anytime TD Scorer @ +300

NFL Free Picks

We're really getting to the business end of the season as this weekend throws up the Divisional Round, which sees the best 8 teams in the NFL face off. Saturday sees Aaron Rodgers welcome the Rams and their incredible defense to Lambeau after they kept Russell Wilson in check last week. Next up is the Ravens @ Bills, as the league's best ground game faces one of the best passing attacks in football. Sunday sees the biggest spread of the round as the underdog Browns face the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The final game of the round sees divisional rivals, the Saints and Buccaneers, meet for the third time this season. Can Tom Brady and Tampa Bay get their first win when it matters? We'll find out.

Our talented stable of handicappers, led by Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson, Ben Rolfe and more brings complete written and video NFL analysis to our users week after week. Make sure you check the site daily for picks from them all.

Ben Rolfe
@benrolfe15
Ben is a football guru with years of experience covering the NFL. You can always count on Ben to pick a winner on Sunday!
Nov 2020
Record
Wins
3
Losses
3
Push
0
ROI
-4.55%
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