NFL Divisional Round Picks: Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

Ben Rolfe breaks down his prop picks for Saturday's Rams vs. Packers game
Ben Rolfe
Thu, January 14, 11:18 AM

Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Prop Bets And Predictions

The Rams will likely ask Cam Akers to do a lot of heavy lifting

When you have uncertainty at the QB position, the running back becomes crucial to the success of the offense. Akers is no stranger to heavy usage in the past few weeks. In his last five games, Akers has carried the ball 114 times for 471. His worst performance came in Week 17 when he was attempting to play through an ankle injury. In the other four games he has averaged over four yards per carry in three of them.

The Packers have generally improved against the run, but there is still success to be found. The Packers have allowed over 100 rushing yards in seven of their past eight games. The Rams are unlikely to have a situation where a QB can drop back 50 times. Therefore, look for Akers to carry the ball between 20 and 30 times. That kind of volume should put 80 rushing yards well in his scope.

1u – Cam Akers over 70.5 rushing yards @ -110

Will Aaron Jones be a big part of the Packers passing offense?

When you think of Aaron Jones, his running prowess stands out, but he is also a useful contributor in the receiving game. In the 2020 season, Jones have averaged 3.36 receptions per game, but a bulk of that usage came early in the season. Through the first eight games, Jones had 43 (5.38 per game) and 32 receptions (four per game). However, in the past six games, his usage has dropped off. In those games he has seen 20 targets (3.33 per game) and 15 receptions (2.5 per game).

He saw five targets and four receptions in Week 17, but his role in the passing game has certainly reduced. When I can get a projected reception line above a player’s average target number for the past six weeks, I will take the under every time.

1u – Aaron Jones under 3.5 receptions @ -110

In a similar vein we can look to potentially take advantage of a matchup offering. Jones is the heavy favorite over Akers to have the most receiving yards. However, in his past two games, Akers has a combined 97 receiving yards on six receptions. In contrast, Jones has just 94 receiving yards in his past five games.

1u – Cam Akers more receiving yards than Aaron Jones @ +124

You don't want to miss out on all the offers that sportsbooks are handing out! We've put them all in one place for you to choose what works best for you on our "Free Bets" page.

What other markets could be enticing?

If you are looking for a longer odds option, Aaron Rodgers to throw over 0.5 interceptions at +220 is tempting. Rodgers has only thrown five interceptions on the 2020 season. However, his two-interception performance came when under heavy pressure from the Tampa Bay defense. The Rams defense should be able to get pressure this week and they have 14 interceptions on the season.

With 11 touchdowns on the season, Robert Tonyan is a value at +160 given that Aaron Jones is -106. Tonyan has caught a touchdown in six of his last seven games.

NFL Expert Picks

1u – Cam Akers over 70.5 rushing yards @ -110

1u – Aaron Jones under 3.5 receptions @ -110

1u – Cam Akers more receiving yards than Aaron Jones @ +124

1u – Aaron Rodgers to throw over 0.5 interceptions @ +220 

1u – Robert Tonyan anytime TD scorer @ +160

NFL Free Picks

We're really getting to the business end of the season as this weekend throws up the Divisional Round, which sees the best 8 teams in the NFL face off. Saturday sees Aaron Rodgers welcome the Rams and their incredible defense to Lambeau after they kept Russell Wilson in check last week. Next up is the Ravens @ Bills, as the league's best ground game faces one of the best passing attacks in football. Sunday sees the biggest spread of the round as the underdog Browns face the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The final game of the round sees divisional rivals, the Saints and Buccaneers, meet for the third time this season. Can Tom Brady and Tampa Bay get their first win when it matters? We'll find out.

Our talented stable of handicappers, led by Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson, Ben Rolfe and more brings complete written and video NFL analysis to our users week after week. Make sure you check the site daily for picks from them all.

Ben Rolfe
@benrolfe15
Ben is a football guru with years of experience covering the NFL. You can always count on Ben to pick a winner on Sunday!
Nov 2020
Record
Wins
3
Losses
3
Push
0
ROI
-4.55%
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