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AFC Conference Championship Picks: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Props

Ben Rolfe breaks down his prop picks for Sunday's Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs game
Ben Rolfe
Sat, January 23, 10:59 AM

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prop Bets And Predictions

Josh Allen should be the center of this offense, but not all with his arm

The Bills situation in terms of their run game means that Allen is going to be the centerpiece of the Bills offense. However, Allen’s passing yards number seems to be on the high side. The third year QB started the year hot, with three straight games over 300 yards passing. However, in the 15 weeks since, Allen has only gone over 300 passing yards six times.

This week’s matchup sees him facing a Chiefs defense which has allowed 246.2 passing yards per game on average. They have not allowed a 300-yard passing performance against them since Week 12 and have only allowed three all season.

Instead, look for Allen to have a role running the ball. Against the Colts he put up over 50 yards before being quieter in the running game last week. However, with Devin Singletary not a true featured back, the Bills need to extend rives and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Allen and his running ability will likely be a big part of that.

1u – Josh Allen under 305.5 passing yards @ -110

1u – Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards @ -110

Stefon Diggs should be able to make plenty of plays

The Chiefs lack any true shut down cover corners and they will likely have a tough time containing Diggs. The leader in receiving yards this season has averaged 95.9 yards per game. However, he has gone over 100 receiving yards in five of his last six. The Chiefs pass defense is a strong group as a collective, but shutting down a playmaker like Diggs will likely be a tough ask.

1u - Stefon Diggs over 94.5 receiving yards @ -110

Travis Kelce could be the best option on the field for either team

Both Diggs and Tyreek Hill are very talented, but Kelce is equally incredible. The Chiefs tight end finished second in the league in receiving yards and had averaged 109.4 yards in the past five games. During that time, he has seen an incredible 11.4 targets per game, pulling in 7.8 receptions.

His receptions line is set at 5.5 in most places, but with poor odds (-150). If you can find even odds for 6.5 then that is a play I would look to make, given he has had seven or more receptions in each of the past five weeks. However, we can also hedge our Diggs bet here by taking Kelce to have more receiving yards than Diggs at +100. If Diggs has an off day, you should hit with Kelce, and there is a reasonable chance you get both to hit.

1u – Travis Kelce more receiving yards than Stefon Diggs @ +100

Is there any value in the anytime touchdown market?

First glance at the market says that the value is limited. This is expected to be a high scoring game, which would mean plenty of touchdowns. However, Isaiah McKenzie (+750) had five touchdowns this season on relatively limited snaps. With Gabriel Davis struggling with an ankle injury in the lead up to the game, McKenzie could offer impact at a nice price.

0.5u – Isaiah McKenzie anytime touchdown @ +750

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NFL Expert Picks

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1u – Josh Allen under 305.5 passing yards @ -110

1u – Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards @ -110

1u - Stefon Diggs over 94.5 receiving yards @ -110

1u – Travis Kelce more receiving yards than Stefon Diggs @ +100

0.5u – Isaiah McKenzie anytime touchdown @ +750

NFL Free Picks

Things are really heating up in the NFL and this Sunday sees the two Conference Championship Games. First up the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers hosting Tom Brady's Buccaneers at Lambeau. Tom Brady is no stranger to cold weather and he'll need to count on that experience in order to win here as he hunts for a 7th ring. The second game of the day sees the Buffalo Bills on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes' injury status has been the big story all week, but perhaps it could be his toe injury which has the biggest impact.

Our talented stable of handicappers, led by Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson, Ben Rolfe and more brings complete written and video NFL analysis to our users week after week. Make sure you check the site daily for picks from them all.

Ben Rolfe
@benrolfe15
Ben is a football guru with years of experience covering the NFL. You can always count on Ben to pick a winner on Sunday!
Nov 2020
Record
Wins
3
Losses
3
Push
0
ROI
-4.55%
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