One of the absolute best things about FanDuel has been the addition of the Same Game Parlay. The Same Game Parlay allows users to parlay game bets, like spread, moneyline and total, with player and game props from one game.
There are three bets for the AFC Championship Game between Buffalo and Kansas City that I have my eyes on, and I’m going to take advantage of FanDuel’s generosity and package them in a 3-leg parlay to try and win big.
3-Leg Parlay @ +380 - $50 Wager Wins $190
Leg 1: Chiefs ML @ -166
I know, the juice sucks. -166 isn’t exactly where I wanted to be here, but there is too much up in the air as of now for me to make a play on the spread. Most likely, Mahomes will play and have 0 complications from the hit he took last week. The Chiefs will look great and cover the three points on their way to another Super Bowl appearance.
But, there is a chance Mahomes does miss the game. There is also a chance Mahomes plays but is limited in what he can do. Taking the Chiefs moneyline alleviates any pressure of having to cover the spread. In the worst case scenario, where Chad Henne starts an AFC Title Game in the year 2021, I still think the Chiefs could pull off a win in a close game. I’m taking them moneyline as an insurance policy, despite the -166 price.
Leg 2: Under 53.5 @ -104
This one pays whether Mahomes is under center or not. If he doesn’t play, Chad Henne won’t be airing it out against the Bills. Andy Reid will be forced to try and limit the time Josh Allen has with the ball in order to give his backup a chance to keep up and win the game.
If Mahomes does play, I still don’t think we have a shootout on our hands. Both these teams have good scoring defenses, averaging 22.3 points against per game. We saw this same Bills defense completely shut down the Ravens just a week ago, and the Chiefs held the Browns to just 17 points.
The Bills are averaging 22 points per game this postseason, the same amount the Chiefs put up in their Divisional Round win. You see Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes and assume we’re going to get a lot of scoring, but that’s not the way either of these teams have been winning lately.
Leg 3: Josh Allen Under 302.5 Yards Passing @ -112
This kind of goes with what I was saying about the total. I just don’t think we’re going to get a shootout, and expecting Allen to throw for over 302 yards is a big ask. He threw for 206 last week against the Ravens. Baker Mayfield managed just 204 yards through the air a week ago against this same Chiefs defense.
I think Allen will have success, as he has all season, but I don’t see him breaking the 300-yard mark. I see something like a 27-23 Kansas City win with Allen around the 275-yard passing mark. The Chiefs will try everything they can to take Stefon Diggs away from Allen, and I think it’ll open up more opportunities in the run game for Buffalo.