Super Bowl 2021 Prop Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions

It's never too early to look at Super Bowl props. Ben Rolfe breaks down his prop picks for Super Bowl LV
Ben Rolfe
Thu, January 28, 4:35 AM EST

Super Bowl 2021 Prop Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Chiefs offense should run through Patrick Mahomes

The Chiefs run game has been an unheralded star of the postseason so far. In the two games, the running game has amassed three touchdowns and 237 rushing yards on 49 attempts. However, in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs go up against the best run defense in the NFL this season. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of just 3.6 yards per attempt, and the least rushing attempts against (22.4).

Mahomes may actually end up being the most successful rusher for this team, with the majority of his attempts tending to come on broken plays. Taking the over on his rushing line of 19.5 is something to consider if his toe is fully healthy for the Super Bowl.

In the last three games, the Chiefs have attempted 38 or fewer passes. However, one of those games was started by Chad Henne, another had Henne come in, and the third was a relative blowout. In the eight games between Weeks 8 and 16, Mahomes has attempted over 40 passes in seven games. That includes the previous meeting between these two teams, where he attempted 50 passes.

1u – Patrick Mahomes over 40.5 passing attempts @ -120

Mahomes has been relatively careless with the ball in the past six weeks. Six turnovers in the past six games, including multiple turnovers against the Dolphins and Falcons. The Buccaneers front four, should be able to get pressure on Mahomes, potentially forcing at least one mistake.

1u – Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions @ +150

Tom Brady has thrown seven touchdowns in the last three weeks

Brady has now thrown 17 touchdowns in the past five games. 10 of those came against the Lions and Falcons, but it does show how the Buccaneers are willing to throw in close. In Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, and Rob Gronkowski, the Buccaneers have three incredible red-zone weapons. The Buccaneers are going to need to score 30+ points in this game, and Brady should be responsible for a few of them. Brady over 2.5 touchdowns can be found at around +150, and you can also find him to have more touchdowns than Mahomes at the same price.

1u – Tom Brady over 2.5 passing touchdowns @ +150

Tom Brady has struggled with accuracy recently

The playoffs have seen Tom Brady with an average completion rate of 55 percent. On top of that, he has completed 60 percent or fewer passes in his last two Super Bowl. This Buccaneers offense has a strong downfield element to it, meaning they can succeed without Brady being his old clinical self. Brady’s completion rate is set with an over/under of 62.5 percent, and I like the under to hit.

1u – Tom Brady under 62.5% completion rate @ +105

Can Tommy Townsend keep the ball out of the end zone?

One of the best things about the Super Bowl is the ability to find relatively obscure lines you would not find elsewhere. Well betting on whether a punter will have a touchback is exactly one of those. On his 52 punts this season, Townsend has had six touchdowns. That is a rate of 11.2%, and makes for a fun little side wager for next week’s big game.

0.25u – Tommy Townsend to have a touchback @ +250

Super Bowl 2021 Expert Prop Picks

1u – Patrick Mahomes over 40.5 passing attempts @ -120 (Click to bet)

1u – Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions @ +150 (Click to bet)

1u – Tom Brady over 2.5 passing touchdowns @ +150 (Click to bet)

1u – Tom Brady under 62.5% completion rate @ +105 (Click to bet)

0.25u – Tommy Townsend to have a touchback @ +250 (Click to bet)

NFL Expert Picks

The Super Bowl is finally here! 32 teams started out the season with hopes of playing for the Lombardi Trophy come February 7, but just two teams are still alive. Last year’s champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, disposed of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game, booking another trip to the title game this year. In the NFC, 43-year old Tom Brady is making his first Super Bowl appearance on a team other than the New England Patriots after Tampa upset the Green Bay Packers. It’s the NFL’s dream matchup, as the GOAT makes one last stand against the player best suited to knock him off of his throne. Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady, Buccaneers vs. Chiefs… we’re in for a treat.

Our talented stable of handicappers, led by Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson, Ben Rolfe and more brings complete written and video NFL analysis to our users week after week. Make sure you check the site daily for picks from them all.

Patrick Mahomes over 40.5 passing attempts @ -120 

Ben Rolfe
Ben is a football guru with years of experience covering the NFL. You can always count on Ben to pick a winner on Sunday!
Nov 2020

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