The Super Bowl is always bittersweet for me. On the one hand, it’s the greatest spectacle of American sports, and usually produces an unbelievable game. On the other hand, it means the season is coming to a close. But, there’s still one more chance to hit a FanDuel Same Game Parlay, so we’re going to take advantage of that. I’ve hit 2-3 since we started doing these later in the season, so it’s been a good run.
There are four bets for the Super Bowl that I have my eyes on, and I’m going to take advantage of FanDuel’s generosity and package them in a 4-leg parlay to try and win big.
4-Leg Parlay @ +709 - $50 Wager Wins $354
Leg 1: Kansas City Chiefs -3 @ -120
The overwhelming majority of the public is on the Chiefs for Sunday’s Super Bowl LV. So, I’ve thought about this game just about every way possible in order to convince myself to fade the public, but I can’t.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a better team than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s really what it comes down to. I don’t think Tampa will be able to slow down the explosive KC offense enough for their own offense to keep pace. I also love than FanDuel is giving us -3, instead of -3.5, even at the -120 price.
I expect massive things from Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and the rest of the KC offense, and noting the Bucs throw at them is going to slow them down.
Leg 2: Over 55.5 @ -115
As I mentioned earlier, I don’t think Tampa will be able to slow the Chiefs down. I’m not sure there is a defense on the planet that can, and I think they will easily break into the mid-to-high 30s on Sunday.
The real question, for me at least, is whether or not we’ll get enough scoring from Tampa to get over the number. If KC scores 35, we only need three touchdowns from Brady and the rest of the Bucs. I think that’s totally doable against an average Chiefs defense. Tampa has scored at least 30 points in every playoff game so far this season, so we’ll likely get even more than the three touchdowns we’ll need.
I like KC to win at something around 38-28 or 38-31. Both these teams can get in the end zone and that’s not going to change in the biggest game of the season.
Leg 3: Travis Kelce Over 100+ Yards @ +100
Leg 4: Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer @ -165
I’m lumping these together for obvious reasons, but I expect Travis Kelce to have a massive game on Sunday in Super Bowl LV. In last season’s Super Bowl, he was held relatively in check, in terms of receiving yards, but he still managed to score a TD. That San Francisco defense was much better than this year’s Tampa defense, so I’m not worried about that.
This postseason, Kelce is averaging 12.5 targets, 10.5 receptions, 113.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. He has scored and broken 100 yards in both of KC’s playoff games, and Sunday will be no different.
This Tampa Bay pass rush is good, and I expect them to get after Mahomes a bit against a banged up Chiefs OL. When Mahomes is in trouble he looks for his favorite target, Travis Kelce. I think Mahomes will look his way early and often and we’ll get a big game from the TE.