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Trevor Lawrence will be taken first overall, so you might as well bet on it

2021 NFL Draft Picks: Trevor Lawrence A Lock At First Overall To The Jaguars

We usually have a pretty good idea who is going to go first overall in the NFL Draft. The last time we were kind of left in the dark was in 2018 when the Browns took Baker Mayfield with the top pick. But this year, for the 2021 NFL Draft, there’s absolutely no question who is going first overall to the Jaguars.

Former Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has been the presumed top pick in 2021 basically since he came out of high school as the nation’s top recruit. Now, just a few weeks away from the Jags being on the clock, it’s all but certain.

NFL Draft First Overall Pick Odds & Prediction

As I mentioned, this pick has basically already been made for Jacksonville. The Jags need a ton of help everywhere, but it starts under center, and we haven’t seen a QB prospect this highly touted since Andrew Luck.

Trevor Lawrence does everything and he does it well. He’s a great athlete and has the size and speed to not only break the pocket but take off if he needs to. When he’s in the pocket, he has unbelievable touch and arm strength. He can make every single throw on the field and does it continually. If he has one negative, it’s the tendency to sometime sail throws and let the ball go a little too high. But, it’s a miniscule knock on an otherwise unbelievable skillset.

At 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds, he has prototypical size for success at the next level. Through his three years as a starter at Clemson, playing at the absolute highest level that college football has to offer, he completed 66.6% of his passes, threw for 10,098 yards and had 90 passing touchdowns to just 17 interceptions.

There isn’t a single red flag on Lawrence, and that’s exactly why his odds to go first overall to the Jaguars sit at -5000 and are as short as -10000 at most places. Those best odds of -5000 give him an implied probability of 98% he’s taken with the top pick.

It also helps that the Jaguars are in need of a franchise QB, as is the case with most teams at the top of the NFL Draft. Jacksonville has talent on the offensive side of the ball. James Robinson proved last season he can be a top back in the NFL, and DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones Jr. give them a ton of weapons.

Lawrence comes into a good situation in terms of the personnel around him and also gets the chance to play for new Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer. Meyer’s first trip to the NFL will be closely watched, as will Lawrence’s rookie season.

There is no way anyone besides Lawrence goes with this pick, and for good reason. I'm not really advocating betting on this because the price is so outrageous. But if you feel so inclined, just put as much money as you want on Lawrence and collect your winnings.

NFL Draft Expert Pick

NFL Draft First Overall Pick - Trevor Lawrence @ -5000 (Click to bet)

2021 NFL Draft Free Picks

As we get ready for the 2021 NFL Draft in April, we take a look at the odds for some of the top prospects available. We know Trevor Lawrence will be going first overall, but what about Zach Wilson? Justin Fields? Penei Sewell?

Leading up to the draft, NFL experts Sam Farley and Brian Good will break down the odds for each of the top players in the 2021 NFL Draft and try to predict where they’ll be playing come Week 1 next season.

Article Author


Brian is a sports journalist with close to ten years of experience in the business. A lifelong Philadelphia sports fan with a passion for all things sports gambling.


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