Premier League Picks: Liverpool vs. Burnley Predictions

The first weekend of the Premier League is in the books. But, we're back in action this weekend. Check out EPL handicapper Alex Campean's Liverpool vs. Burnley predictions for Saturday's game.
Alex Campean
Wed, August 18, 10:21 AM EDT

Premier League Picks: Liverpool vs. Burnley Predictions

When: Saturday, August 21 @ 7:30 AM ET

Where: Anfield

Liverpool: Takes After The First Round

The Reds kicked-off their Premier League campaign beating newly promoted team Norwich 3-0 on the road with goals from Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino and Mo Salah. Actually, Salah who had quite an impact since arriving on Merseyside back in 2017, added another record to his tally, last Saturday against Norwich. He is the 1st player in the EPL history to score in 5 consecutive season openers.

Most people expected Liverpool to cover the -1.5 Asian Handicap, and they did. But it was closer than what the final result says. Alisson enjoyed a great match, and you can tell it was a tough match from the ratings. Liverpool’s keeper finished 2nd in the ratings with 7.6, behind Mo Salah (9.2). The hosts need to improve things at the back and enter with the same winning mentality against Burnley.

Virgil van Dijk and Joel Matip returned to Liverpool starting line-up but summer signing Ibrahima Konate was left on the bench while Joe Gomez was also an unused substitute. We are still waiting for Jurgen Klopp to offer Konate his 1st minutes in a competitive game and we are still waiting for Van Dijk and Konate to become the best defensive duo in Europe.

Sadio Mane and Mo Salah look to be in great shape, high pace, great passes and feeling between the 2 of them and of course superb on 1 on 1 with their opponents. This will be the main key to the season as long as they will stay fit and determined. The only issue is that the Africa Cup of Nations is scheduled for January 9 to February 6, 2022, with Mane, Salah and Naby Keita set to miss 3 to 4 Premier League fixtures as they will be called up for their countries.

Liverpool passed less than Norwich but way more efficient. From a total of 541 passes, 10 of them were through ball (only 3 from Norwich), the most dangerous passes, the ones which create spaces behind your opponent’s defensive line/s. They also had 19 goal-scoring attempts, 10 from open play and 9 from set pieces with their tall defenders, amazing on aerial balls, always ready to score with headers.

The only minus for Liverpool was that they committed a high number of individual errors and, if against Norwich that was not a big problem, against Burley and their future opponents that might be a big problem. Of course, the season just started, and we’ve seen some other big teams like Man City confronting with big problems, so we’re expecting things to improve for Liverpool.

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Burnley: Takes After The First Round

Burnley faced a typical transfer window for their club with little to no investments into the squad. Their only important transfer was the $16.5m arrival of Nathan Collins from Stoke who isn’t expected to feature any time soon. They enjoyed a great pre-season action winning 5 of their 6 friendlies but all of them against lesser opposition.

They kicked-off their Premier League season with a 1-2 defeat to Brighton. Despite entering the second half with a 1 goal advantage and dominating the aerial duels and favoring crosses, Burley left too many spaces on the wings to Brighton who had a better conversion rate from the same number of shots (14 each). Brighton scored 2 goals in the 2nd half, winning the game, and adding their 1st points to their season tally.

Liverpool vs. Burnley Betting Picks

Sean Dyche's side have caused Liverpool few problems over the last couple of seasons. In the previous 3 head-to-heads Burnley won once (on the road) but also kept Liverpool to a 1-1 draw (again, away from home). Liverpool are huge favorites being priced at -500 with Bet365.

Burnley’s problems on the flanks will be the key to this match. On the wings, the Red are one of the most dangerous teams in the Premier League. Not only with Milner and Oxlade-Chamberlain but also with Alexander Arnold and Tsimikas delivering great crosses from the wings. We expect a straight Liverpool win but where is the value? Burnley will have hard times to find the back of the net but the “both teams to score” market looks a bit dangerous so we will skip it. Instead, we’re going with 3 different takes.

Click here for full Liverpool vs. Burnley odds

Liverpool vs. Burnley Predictions

Liverpool Half-Time/Full-Time @ -152

2nd Half Goals Over 1.5 @ -132

Sadio Mane Anytime Goalscorer @ +140

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