Monkey Knife Fight Week 1 NFL Prop Picks: More or Less and Rapid Fire
Football is back, and today we’ll be taking a look at Monkey Knife Fight for some props in week one. If you don’t know how to play, it’s very simple, and following along shouldn’t be an issue.
More or Less - 1 PM Slate
In this contest, you're essentially picking More or Less (over or under) on a player’s stat line that they give you. Pretty simple, no?
For the 1:00 pm slate we’ll be playing the More or Less with a chance to 15x our money by making a pick for each of these five props:
For Matt Ryan, I’m taking the under on this one. While I think the Falcons will have a productive day on offense, asking Ryan to throw for essentially 300 yards is a lot. He eclipsed the 295.5 mark just five times last season and averaged 286.3 yards per game on the season.
Josh Allen eclipsed his number of 285.5 passing yards per game nine times last season. While the Steelers were the third-ranked defense in the league last year, I don’t expect it to slow down Allen and the Bills on Sunday. Buffalo looks ready to double down on their Super Bowl aspirations.
Speaking of the Bills, enter Stefon Diggs. He had a monster season in his first year with the Bills, putting up 1,535 yards and 8 touchdowns. Diggs also led the league in receptions with 127, which paces him out to 7.9 per game. He too will hit his over.
Derrick Henry is fresh off a 2,000 yard rushing season and is the back-to-back Rushing Champ in the league. Henry averaged an insane 126.7 yards per game last year and went over 105.5 yards nine times on the campaign. The Cardinals struggled to stop the run in 2020, so I will take the over for Henry here too.
Calvin Ridley took a massive step forward in 2020, putting up 1,374 yards on the season. While I took the under on his quarterback, Matt Ryan -- I’ll take the over here. The Eagles were middle of the pack last year against the pass and Ridley eclipsed 85.5 yards in nine games for Atlanta last season.
Rapid Fire - 4:00 PM Slate
We’re going with a Rapid Fire for the 4:00 PM games. In this contest, we'll be pitting two players against each other to see who will outperform the other in their respective categories.
Up first is Patrick Mahomes versus Aaron Rodgers, with the reigning MVP getting a bonus of 34.5 yards -- which means he's essentially starting as if he already has 34.5 yards passing.
With the bonus included, I’m going to take Rodgers. Expect him to have a big day against the Saints, who are technically the home team but the game will take place in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. Against the Saints last year, Rodgers threw for 283 yards. If he gets into that same range again before the bonus, he should be in good shape.
For the rushing prop, I’m going to take Aaron Jones. Nick Chubb could lose carries to Kareem Hunt with the Cleveland Browns possibly having to air it out and play catchup with Kansas City.
Even with the bonus for DeVante Adams, I’m still taking Travis Kelce. Ten times last year Kelce eclipsed the seven-catch mark, and we know how much Patrick Mahomes likes feeding him the football. It doesn’t help that Cleveland ceded the fourth-most yards to tight ends last year.
Sunday Night Football - More or Less
In Matthew Stafford’s Los Angeles debut, I’ll take the over on 275.5 passing yards. The Rams are a Super Bowl favorite this year, and with Sean McVay’s new toy under center, they should be throwing the ball all over the yard on Chicago in Week 1.
As for Andy Dalton, give me the under. On average last year, the Rams allowed 190.7 passing yards per game and I don’t think Andy Dalton is going to be the one to crack the code against what is likely the best defense in football.
I’m also taking the under on Cooper Kupp. His average for receptions per game was at just 6.1 in 2020, and while the Rams will be throwing the ball a lot, it’s his teammate Robert Woods that I think will get more love than Kupp.
Monday Night Football - Rapid Fire
57.5 passing yards in the bonus is too much to pass up. Lamar Jackson averaged 183.8 yards per game passing last year, so that would put him at roughly 241 yards if he hits that pace. Derek Carr is certainly capable of hitting that number, but if Jackson pushes close to 200 yards before the bonus kicks in, then Carr’s in trouble.
That 1.5 receptions bonus for Mark Andrews is enticing but I’m sticking with Darren Waller. He’s the Raiders' best piece on offense, while the Ravens have more of a likelihood to spread the ball around.
If Josh Jacobs plays, then it’ll be him. I understand the Ravens like to run the ball, but they might go with a committee approach in their backfield, while Jacobs is more of the known quantity, at least at this level.