Monday Night Football Week 2 Same Game Parlay Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Week 1 was a week to forget for the Green Bay Packers. They were embarrassed, 38-3 by the New Orleans Saints, and Aaron Rodgers threw an uncharacteristic two interceptions in the losing effort.
As for Detroit, they lost a 41-33 game at home providing a backdoor cover in the process. The Detroit defense did a horrendous job against San Francisco allowing Jimmy Garoppolo to throw for 314 yards on just 25 attempts.
These NFC North rivals are both looking to get in the win column for the first time this season. Who comes out on top and how can we make some money on a same-game parlay?
Packers Race to 30 points
Yes, it’s a little bold to take the Packers putting up 30 after they just put up three the week prior. To be fair, in both games last year the Lions let the Packers score over 30 points and in 11 of their past 17 games since 2020, the Lions have allowed their opponents to score at least 30.
A hungry Aaron Rodgers is a scary thought. Sure, maybe Rodgers has really mailed it in and is going to be a liability all year long for the Packers. I’m just not ready to bet on that after one down performance.
Against the Lions in his career, Rodgers is 17-5 with 46 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. He’s only lost to Detroit twice at home and one of those games was a Week 17 matchup where the Packers pulled the starters early.
Expect a hungry Packers offense tonight. They’re too talented to just completely roll over and die this early in the season.
Sure, the number is big and a back door cover 10 point game is always a possibility but are you willing to bet on this Detroit team right now? Since 2019, when Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers linked up, the Packers are 6-0 against the spread after a loss.
In those six games, they also have an average margin of victory of 14 and they have an ATS +/- of 10. The duo has also been impressive in divisional games over that span. Green Bay is 8-4 with an average margin of victory of 8.6 points.
As a road underdog, the Lions are just 5-7 since 2019 ATS and after a loss are just 8-13 (38.1 percent). All signs are pointing to a Packer bounce back.
Considering that I’m predicting that Green Bay scores at least 30 points that would mean Detroit has to put up somewhere around 19 points at minimum for this leg of the parlay to hit.
Detroit did that last week, scoring 33 points. While I don’t anticipate them scoring that many points is it fair to assume that they can hit in that 17+ window?
The last time the Lions scored less than 17 against the Packers was way back in 2013. In their last four matchups, Detroit has averaged 21.8 points per game against the Packers. Detroit has too many playmakers on offense to lay a complete egg.
I think we’re looking at something like a 34-20 game which would give the over a comfortable cover. If all three legs of this parlay hit, you’re looking at a +205 return.