Top Monday Night Football Props to Bet: Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams, Longest Reception Over 24.5 Yards (-120) (DraftKings)
Everything I’ve written about this game has been through the lens of the Packers offense bouncing back from their Week 1 disaster. In the event the Packers do indeed rebound, a big play for Davante Adams is a near-guarantee. Hell, Adams had an explosive gain even in their three-point effort against the Saints, ripping off a 31-yard reception.
We know the volume is going to be there for Adams, too. Adams is arguably the league’s best wide receiver and Aaron Rodgers still targeted him a ton in the Saints game. Adams’ seven targets tied for most on the team. His five receptions also led the team by two. If Adams could still get those chances and produce amidst a horrid overall team performance against a solid defense, it’s easy to see how he is going to get chances and generate explosives against a significantly worse Lions secondary.
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120) (DraftKings)
Again: this is shaping up to be a great chance for Rodgers and the Packers offense to get back on track. There is no chance the Packers offense is actually as bad as they looked against the Saints. Rodgers, against a bad and injury-riddled Lions secondary, should be able to feast.
Rodgers was rattling off performances with three-or-more touchdowns just last season, too. In 12 of 16 starts, Rodgers tossed at least three touchdowns, including one of the Lions games. Maybe last year’s magic is not in the cards for 2021, but if there is any team Rodgers is going to find a huge scoring game this year, it will be against a Detroit defense starting Amani Oruiwariye, rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu, and potentially an undrafted free agent in the slot.
Detroit Lions TE TJ Hockenson, Over 4.5 Receptions (-135) (DraftKings)
Too many signs point in the right direction for this bet.
One of them is as simple as can be: Hockenson is the Lions’ best pass-catcher. Offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn knows it and so does quarterback Jared Goff. Detroit’s 20% target share to tight ends last Sunday was about league average, truthfully, but all but one of those targets went to Hockenson, whereas most of the other teams near the top (Denver, Cleveland, Atlanta) were splitting targets among multiple tight ends. The only tight end in the NFL to eclipse Hockenson’s 11 targets last week was Darren Waller of the Raiders.
Hockenson made good on most of his targets against the 49ers, too. He pulled in eight receptions for 97 yards and a score. With All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner being one of the 49ers’ defenders roaming the middle of the field, that is quite the feat from Hockenson.
And the good news is, this Packers defense does not have a Fred Warner. Or anything close to that. Green Bay’s safety duo is better than San Francisco’s, to be clear, but Hockenson will still get his chances against linebackers or just working through zones. The Packers allowed nine targets (and six receptions) to tight ends against the Saints, accounting for just over 40% of their passing targets on the day.
Both Teams to Score 20+ Points, Yes (+125)
I said as much in my full preview of this game, but this matchup has the makings of a sloppy shootout. Things shouldn’t reach the levels of the 2015 Saints versus Giants game that ended 52-49, but both defenses in this game look suspect. The Packers’ offense is looking for a “get right” game after getting shut down by the Saints defense, while the Lions’ offense looked somewhat competent after Goff worked out some early kinks.
Detroit should be able to run the ball effectively against Green Bay’s front seven, too. The Packers’ front got absolutely worked by the Saints last week. It’s a stretch to assume the Lions can get as much movement as the Saints did, but the offensive line played well against a solid 49ers front and could look even better against the Packers. Running the ball well will help keep Goff in favorable down-and-distances as well as keep play-action concepts in the arsenal.
Rodgers and the Packers should still be favored in a shootout like this, but I don’t think it’s that crazy to expect the Lions to put up points. Hell, the Lions have put up at least 20 points on the Packers in each of their last six meetings, including once with David Blough quarterbacking a team that finished the year with three wins.