Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Week 3 Predictions and Picks: Against the Spread, Total, and Props

In a showcase of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert expect both the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers to put up points.
Matt O'Leary
Thu, September 23, 5:59 AM EDT

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Week 3 Predictions and Picks: Against the Spread, Total, and Props

Both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers head into Week 2 with a 1-1 record and are coming off of a loss in their second game. For Los Angeles, they’ve had a hard time scoring points early on this year.

They scored just 17 against the Cowboys’ defense that usually bleeds points like it’s going out of style. Ironically, their second-year quarterback Justin Herbert has picked up where he left off throwing for 337.5 yards per game

As for Kansas City, the defense has let them down so far. They’re scoring points like they usually do but they just haven’t been able to stop anyone so far through two weeks. In this AFC West showdown who comes out on top?

Los Angeles Chargers Preview

Chargers vs Chiefs Odds

Going from Philip Rivers to Justin Herbert is one of the luckiest things that could happen to a franchise. Herbert has been excellent through his first 17 games in the NFL and there are no signs of him slowing down.

Ironically, despite him playing just like he did last year they can’t get the ball in the endzone. The Chargers are averaging just 18.5 points on offense through two games. Expect that to change this week though, as a game against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense sounds like exactly what the doctor ordered.

Defensively, they’ve been fantastic. They’re ranked seventh in the league in team defense and have the seventh-best quarterback knockdown percentage so far this year. It also helps that your new coach, Brandon Staley, is a defensive wizard.

Kansas City Chiefs Preview

Chargers vs Chiefs Odds

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Kansas City is scoring at an unbelievable clip to start the 2021 season. They have 68 points in two games so far and when you have the best offensive play-caller in the sport and the best quarterback in the sport that becomes the expectation each week.

Since the start of 2020, the Chiefs have put up 30 points or more in a game 12 times. Both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce find themselves in the top-10 in receiving yards and Mahomes is third in passing yards.

Like I said, the offense isn’t the issue it’s the defense. They’ve allowed the fifth-most points and the most yards in the NFL by a significant margin. Luckily for Andy Reid, they normally can survive by just outscoring their opponent with brute force.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview

Chargers vs Chiefs Odds

Since taking over as the signal-caller for the Chiefs in 2018, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 6-4 ATS after a loss. K.C. is not one of the better teams at covering the spread as they’ve covered just 55.4 percent of their games over that span but off a loss, they usually tend to bounce back.

As both an underdog and an away team, the Chargers have performed well covering 66.7 percent of the time since the start of 2020. With the line at 6.5 in favor of the Chiefs, it’s easy for some to want to grab ahold of the Chargers at +6.5.

Why I’m advising against that is because in Mahomes’ five starts against the Chargers he’s 4-1 and has beaten them by more than a touchdown in three of those four wins. Also, even at the 54.5 number I still like the over for the total points.

The Chiefs' offense should put up 30 in their sleep and with the Chiefs' problems on defense they should give up a fair amount of points to the pass-happy Chargers.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Picks

Chiefs -6.5

Over 54.5

Matt O'Leary
MattOLearyNY
OddsChecker sports writer Matt O'Leary brings experience sports betting advice to the OC staff. You may recognize Matt from his popular New York Jets youtube channel, but his vast knowledge of sports and betting goes well past the boundaries of New York.
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