Top NFL Passing Props for Week 3: Betting on a Rookie and the GOAT
Top NFL Passing Props for Week 3: Betting on a Rookie and the GOAT
Last week, we talked about thinking through game situations that create passing success, and it led to two of our three recommendations hitting.
Week 3 brings the debut of a hyped rookie quarterback, and I’m very interested in one of his props in this week’s look at the best passing props of the week.
**Justin Fields, Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-114) - FanDuel
Justin Fields, Over 19.5 Completions (-105) - DraftKings**
Fields is a dual-threat quarterback with rushing ability and a high rushing prop for this week. That’s helping to keep his passing numbers down.
I think the Bears will try to protect Fields by running the ball some, and I do believe he’ll use his legs a good amount in this one, but he makes his NFL debut at Cleveland, and as 7.5-point road dogs, there’s a good chance Chicago will need to throw late in the game.
Fields has plenty of arm talent, and his accuracy has been on display both in the preseason and last week, though he’s dealt with some drops issues on the other, so the stats don’t back it up. Nevertheless, coming into the season, PFF graded him as their most accurate passer since 2014, and that plus his mobility in the pocket should help him extend plays and find some passing success early in his career. It’s not a great matchup, but these are low bars to clear for a guy who has all the ability in the world.
**Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+150) - BetMGM
Tom Brady Over 26.5 Completions (-105) - DraftKings**
What Brady has done over the first two weeks of the season has in some ways been fluky, but the expected regression is probably not going to strike as hard as some might think. In some ways, Brady and the Buccaneers offense resembles the college offenses in conferences like the Big 12 — they’ve given their running backs just 30 carries through two wins so far, while Brady has thrown 86 passes.
Head coach Bruce Arians is frustrated with Ronald Jones, and Leonard Fournette has mostly looked average as a runner, while the receiver group looks nearly unstoppable. The key to what Tampa is doing is the talent in the pass-catching group. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski, and Antonio Brown — who may not play — have given Brady so many high-end weapons that defenses simply can’t commit enough players in coverage to stop them all. Even if Brown is out, they can use Scotty Miller or Tyler Johnson, and they will still be in a great position to have someone win on their route and be open somewhere. And Brady, perhaps better than any other quarterback in the league, is going to find that matchup.
The Bucs head to LA to take on the Rams in a game with a 55.5 over/under. The Rams notably just stonewalled Jonathan Taylor on five rush attempts from within the 3-yard line last week, so thinking the Bucs are suddenly going to try to pound the ball in against Aaron Donald and company at the goal line is probably a silly idea. Betting the over on 2.5 passing touchdowns is an aggressive stance in any game, but we’re getting a great number here.
As for the completion, it’s also a very high number, but Brady completed 32 passes in Week 1 and reached 24 in Week 2 despite two Tampa returning two interceptions for touchdowns in the fourth quarter, which limited Brady’s offensive snaps late. So this one could be a back-and-forth affair late, and I think Brady will be passing.
Top NFL Passing Props For Week 3 Picks
- Justin Fields, Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-114) - FanDuel
- Justin Fields, Over 19.5 Completions (-105) - DraftKings
- Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+150) - BetMGM
- Tom Brady Over 26.5 Completions (-105) - DraftKings
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