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Matt O'Leary shares his pick for the Sunday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers.
ANALYSIS

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Week 3 Predictions and Picks: Against the Spread, Total, and Props

Just two years ago, these two teams met in the NFC Championship game in which the San Francisco 49ers advanced to the Super Bowl. While the 49ers took a step back in 2020, mostly due to injuries, the Packers found themselves in the NFC Championship Game once again.

Now, we get a rematch between these two teams that look destined for the playoffs once again. That wasn’t the case after Week 1 after Aaron Rodgers no-showed but after a dominant Week 2 performance it looks like the MVP is back and ready to get the Packers into the postseason.

As for the 49ers, they’re off to a 2-0 start after beating the Lions and the Eagles. Will their winning ways continue for their home opener? Or will it be Aaron Rodgers getting his revenge for 2019?

Green Bay Packers Preview

Packers vs 49ers Betting Odds

Week 1 and Week 2 were vastly different for the Packers. Putting up just three points in Week 1, they bounced back with a 35 point showing over the Lions. Aaron Rodger’s four passing touchdowns were more like it as they were dominant and pulled away in the second half.

This is a great test for Green Bay, who so far allowed the seventh-most passing yards against. They’ve been much better stopping the run, but it’s clear that the Kevin King experience needs to end on the other side of Jaire Alexander.

Aaron Jones has been extremely quiet through the first two games as well. He’s averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt and has only 76 yards so far.

San Francisco 49ers Preview

Packers vs 49ers Betting Odds

Even though the 49ers are 2-0, their Week 1 and Week 2 performance couldn’t be more different. In Week 1 they scored a whopping 41 on the Detroit Lions but then followed it up with only 17 last week in Philadelphia.

Jimmy Garoppolo wasn’t nearly as effective as he only had 189 yards on 30 passing attempts. After throwing for 314 the week prior on five fewer attempts, his performance was a little disappointing.

Defensively, they were also much different but this time in a good way. In Week 1 they allowed 33 points and 430yards of offense to the Lions. They cut that number to just 11 points against the Eagles and the yardage was down to 328.

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview

Packers vs 49ers Betting Odds

Since Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers teamed up in Green Bay, the Packers have covered 60.5 percent of their games with a 23-15 ATS record. That number looks even sweeter when you look at when they’re a road underdog as Rodgers and company have a 5-3 record with an average margin of victory of 7.9.

As for the 49ers, they’re 5-7-1 (41.7 percent) as a home favorite over the same span. While that number isn’t pretty, if you want to take a look at rest advantage they’re 7-2 ATS when having the extra rest and have a ATS +/- of +4.9 in those games.

When using the same window, Green Bay hits the over 52.6 percent of the time while San Fran is an even 50 percent. With the potential of offense in this game, I like the play on the over at 50 for this week.

In terms of the spread, it’s hard for me to pick against Aaron Rodgers getting +3.5 points. Don’t overthink it, since becoming a full-time starter in 2008 the Packers are 28-25-1 when getting points on the road. With all due respect to the 49ers, I don’t think wins over Detroit or Philadelphia should launch them into this elite category. Prove it to me first, and when it comes down to it give me Rodgers over Jimmy G any day of the week.

HOW TO BET ON FOOTBALL

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers Picks

Packers +3.5

Over 50

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OddsChecker sports writer Matt O'Leary brings experience sports betting advice to the OC staff. You may recognize Matt from his popular New York Jets youtube channel, but his vast knowledge of sports and betting goes well past the boundaries of New York.

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