Sunday Night Football Week 3 Same-Game Parlay Picks; Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
Sunday Night Football Week 3 Same-Game Parlay Picks; Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
On Sunday Night Football, we’ll get to see a rematch of the 2019-2020 NFC Championship Game. Last time, it was a dominant performance for San Francisco to send them to the Super Bowl.
This time, I wouldn’t anticipate it to be a blowout. Instead, expect a back and forth game between Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points at home and the total is set at 50.5 for the game. With both of those in mind, let’s try to make some cash on a same-game parlay between the Packers and 49ers.
The parlay is a three-leg parlay and if it hits, it’ll give you a +400 return.
Davante Adams Anytime TD Scorer
Through two games this year, Davante Adams doesn’t have a touchdown. On paper, it sounds like picking someone who hasn’t scored yet this season is risky but when you consider his usage in the offense, it’s really not nearly as risky as it sounds.
The last time he went three games in a row without a touchdown you have to go back to September of 2019. For someone who had 18 touchdowns last year and someone who has hit double digits in four of the last five previous seasons, the scores are going to eventually begin to come.
Of the 40 targets that Green Bay Wide Receivers have in 2021, 16 of them are to Adams (40 percent). Eventually, those targets have to start converting to scores. I don’t think the streak lasts too much longer.
Packers +3.5
Going back to 2019, when Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers linked up, the Packers are the third-best team in the NFL against the spread covering 60.5 percent of the time. As an away underdog that number moves up to 62.5 percent with an ATS +/- of 3.1.
In the Kyle Shanahan era, the 49ers are just 5-11-1 as a home favorite covering 31.2 percent of the time. It’s not to say that the 49ers can’t win this game, they absolutely could, but history indicates that LaFleur and Rodgers getting points tends to be a good thing.
I think the Packers win outright anyway, but with the +3.5 it also allows for a cover if for some reason the 49ers win by a field goal.
Over 50.5
Using 2019 as the benchmark again, the Packers have hit the over 52.6 percent of the time. For San Francisco, it’s been a coin flip going 18-18-1. When looking at this matchup it’s hard to see a world where there aren’t a lot of points scored.
For Green Bay, they’ve allowed 55 points through two games and currently rank 22nd in defense. On the offensive side, the Packers have scored 30 points or more in a game 14 out of their last 20 times.
This has shootout written all over it and if you’re looking at a 30-27 Packers win, you clear that 50.5 number with some breathing room. With odds at +400, it may seem like a long shot (implied chance of 20 percent) but with Rodgers firing on all cylinders, it shouldn’t be nearly as difficult as what the odds tell you.