Top Monday Night Football Prop Picks: Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts Under 242.5 Passing Yards (-115) - DraftKings
I’m fading Jalen Hurts until he proves he can throw over the middle of the field. Hurts has largely gotten away with only throwing quick game outside the hashes and deep balls down the sideline through two weeks. To his credit, Hurts throws a pretty go ball, and the Eagles’ receivers are good at generating yards after the catch on some of these quicker throws, particularly all the screens they run. Still, I’m just not convinced by Hurts’ performance as a passer right now.
That formula has been fine for the past couple of weeks, but in a matchup where the pressure to throw the ball well against an elite quarterback like Prescott is high, I have a hard time trusting Hurts.
Moreover, Hurts still has a tendency to “one-and-done” his reads on true dropback concepts and bail the pocket early to scramble. If the game script calls for dropback concepts early and often to keep up with Dallas, which it very well could, then I’d expect we get a lot of Hurts’ passing attempts being converted into scramble rushing attempts. That may be better for the Eagles in terms of winning this game but worse for anyone trying to hit the over on this prop.
Dallas Cowboys Team Total Over 3.5 Touchdowns (+105) - DraftKings
Dallas’ offense is more explosive than their 20-point affair against the Chargers last week suggests. They did not have any three-and-outs, consistently got the ball past midfield, and just got stopped a couple of times in field goal range by a much improved Chargers secondary. They are plenty capable of ripping off 30-plus point games regularly.
The data suggests as much, too. Per Tej Seth of Pro Football Focus, Dallas ranks eighth in implied points through two weeks. Likewise, Football Outsiders’ DVOA stat has the Cowboys as the seventh-best offense in the league, right behind the Bucs. Dallas only sits at 14th in points per game, though. One has to imagine all of their efficiency is a good sign for their ability to score moving forward. They should not continue to be this “unlucky” for the rest of the year.
On a similar note, the Eagles defense feels like they are not as good as their two performances suggest. The opener against the Falcons appeared somewhat impressive at first, given some of the light optimism with Atlanta’s offense heading into the year. Still, it’s clear now that they do not have an NFL offensive line and are discombobulated structurally. However, Philly’s game against the 49ers was technically against a good offense, but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo left a ton of throws on the field after studying the film. A significantly better quarterback such as Prescott will not let that happen.
As the cherry on top, this will be Dallas’ return home. They started the year with two road games against two playoff-caliber teams. That is some tough early sledding, but this feels like the game to get comfortable and kick into high gear.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (+100) - DraftKings
If Dallas’ offense is going to have the game I expect them to, someone has to be the guy racking up all the yards and moving the chains. CeeDee Lamb, who leads the team in targets through two weeks and appears to be the focal point of the passing offense, is the best bet to be “that guy” this week.
Lamb’s target share alone tells us as much, but it’s clear Moore wants to get him the ball. The Cowboys run a handful of plays per game that are clearly designed to get the ball to Lamb and nobody else. In Week 1, for example, Dallas called the fake screen to Lamb that he converted to a vertical route, and Prescott hit him for a touchdown. In Week 2, we saw some concepts like this clip posted by Nate Tice, where the entire concept is moving away from Lamb 1-on-1 on the sideline to give him a chance to just beat his guy. Safe to say Prescott trusts him in those situations, too.
Lamb has also been given a couple of touches per game on screen passes, making sense for someone with his yards-after-catch dominance. While Dallas does get their other receivers some touches that way, too, Lamb is their best guy for the job and the one they probably want to force those touches to.
Top Monday Night Football Prop Picks: Cowboys vs. Eagles
- Jalen Hurts Under 242.5 Passing Yards (-115) - DraftKings
- Cowboys Team Total Over 3.5 Touchdowns (+105) - DraftKings
- CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (+100) - DraftKings