Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens: Same-Game Parlay Picks
The Week 4 matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos is fascinating as the two teams are a combined 5-1 on the season. We expected the Ravens to compete for an AFC North division title before the season started, but few expected the Broncos to be two games up on the Chiefs in the AFC West after three games. So will Denver earn their biggest win of the season and continue to silence the doubters? We have a three-leg same game parlay with a return of plus odds that has you covered for this AFC showdown.
For the Ravens, not all wins are created equal. Last week’s win was indeed “historic” in that they needed every inch of an NFL record 66-yard field goal from Justin Tucker to escape Detroit with a 17-16 road victory. Denver is off to a 3-0 start, but the three teams they have beaten (Giants, Jaguars, Jets) are a combined 0-9. Still, oddsmakers have given the Broncos the benefit of the doubt and made them small home favorites at Mile High. So in what capacity does the point spread work its way into our same game parlay?
Broncos vs. Ravens Same-Game Parlay Picks
BALTIMORE RAVENS +4.5
The Broncos are -1.5 point road favorites at the moment, but just like in last week’s successful Seahawks-Vikings same game parlay, we opt for an alternate point spread as one of the legs of the parlay. Again, no disrespect to Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, or Zach Wilson, but the caliber of quarterback that Denver will have to beat to remain undefeated goes up considerably in this matchup.
Former MVP Lamar Jackson has had to shoulder a lot of the load offensively thus far, especially on the ground where his 251 yards rushing leads the team. Jackson’s four turnovers (three interceptions, one lost fumble) through three games are a concern, but we like for Baltimore to utilize a much more run-heavy approach in this game to take the raucous Broncos crowd out of the game. As such, they should minimize possessions, and their defense that is maligned for how many injuries they have suffered has allowed just 17 points in their last five quarters. Thus, we do not envision any way the Broncos beat a team this talented by more than four points.
UNDER 49.5 POINTS
Once again, we move a number in this game by five points, as the original over/under is 44.5. We already made the case that Baltimore’s defense is playing much better than people are giving them credit for. The Ravens rank an uncharacteristic 24th in total defense, but they have faced two of the conference’s most explosive offenses in the Raiders and Chiefs. Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos are not built to push the ball downfield like those other two teams. A more smashmouth game style with their two running backs, Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams, plays right into Baltimore’s strengths defensively.
The Broncos rank second in total defense entering this matchup, allowing just 221.7 yards per game. While the dual-threat ability of Lamar Jackson will challenge them, they will play well enough at home to keep this total lower than 50 points.
BRONCOS TEAM TOTAL UNDER 22.5 POINTS
The Broncos have exceeded this total in every game this season. However, their offense has also dominated the time of possession and has been set up with several short fields due to the opposition’s anemic offenses. Baltimore’s offense is much more explosive than that of the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets. None of Denver’s first three opponents have held the ball for longer than 24:52, but one can be sure that Baltimore’s offense will possess the ball longer than that. Granted, Denver’s offense will likely need to take more shots downfield than they have in their first three games, but we do not expect Baltimore’s defense to allow more than three touchdowns to a Broncos offense that ranks 14th in total yards despite facing weak competition to this point.
BRONCOS VS. RAVENS SAME GAME PARLAY PICKS
3-Leg Same Game Parlay (+146): Risk $100 to win $146