OddsChecker Staff Roundtable: Week 4 NFL Upset Picks and Predictions
The hot streak continues.
Since the start of the season, our staff's upset picks have gone a combined 13-3 -- and no, we most definitely will not talk about the fact that two of those losses have come from yours truly. Don't even think it.
Here are the receipts (Week 1, Week 2, Week 3), if you're skeptical. Let's recap -- if you'd have bet one unit on each of our upset picks since the season began, your return on investment (ROI) would be 102.6%.
So...if you'd have bet $100 on each of our picks thus far, your wallet would be $1,641 thicker.
Not too shabby, eh?
In addition to an ever-growing abundance of top-notch content, our staff will be providing us with their favorite upset picks each week of the season.
Now, the word “upset” could mean many different things to many different people. But for the purpose of this piece, we’re focusing entirely on moneyline plays.
In other words, we’re picking surprise winners and losers. Let’s get to it!
Carolina Panthers Over Dallas Cowboys (+188)
I came into the season a big believer in Matt Rhule and the Panthers, and I think they'll beat Dallas outright. The Cowboys have given up second-most passing yards in the NFL this year but their eight defensive turnovers lead the league. The turnover luck ends Sunday and Carolina wins.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
Seattle Seahawks Over San Francisco 49ers (+135)
George Kittle sounds like he might miss the game with a calf injury, and even if he plays at less than 100%, that impacts the 49ers' offense both in the passing game and on the ground because of his ability as a blocker. The Seahawks have won in San Francisco six of the past seven years, with their loss coming in an overtime game in 2018. This should be a tight contest whichever way it lands.
-- Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch)
In Russell Wilson's career, he has yet to lose three games in a row. San Francisco is a tough ask for the Seahawks, but with Los Angles looming in Week 5, they can't afford to drop another one. It helps that Russ is also 14-4 in his career against the 49ers
-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)
The Niners seem to be quite a bit overvalued here. Seattle has come out victorious in 13 of the last 15 matchups between these division rivals, and that includes six of the last seven in San Fran. As it stands now, the Seahawks rank ahead of the 49ers in team DVOA, and the Niners could very well be without George Kittle and two starting corners. I'd probably make this bet at even money, let alone +135.
-- Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)
I imagine plenty of the team will be on this one as not many other spots this week stand out. The 49ers are coming off an emotional loss at the hands of the Packers -- thanks for cashing our upset pick last week, Green Bay (wink). Seattle needs a win this week because dropping to 1-3 would be detrimental to their playoff hopes in the stacked NFC West. Russell Wilson has never lost three games in a row and I don't expect that to happen here! DK Metcalf was added to the injury report Thursday and that's a bit concerning, but if he suits up, I think this Seattle offense will light up the 49ers right now. The only question is will they be able to stop the 49ers from running all over them? I believe so, the 49ers rank in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing through three weeks. That will be the key to Seattle winning this Sunday. Let's make it 4-0 with our upset picks of the week!
-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)
Minnesota Vikings Over Cleveland Browns (+118)
I'm not very high on the Vikings defense right now, but Minnesota's offense has the potential to drag the team to an upset win. Kirk Cousins is on fire right now and could continue that streak against a Browns secondary that has been inconsistent despite all of its talent. I'm also not Baker Mayfield's biggest fan, so if this game script forces Mayfield into more legit dropback passing sooner rather than later, the Browns offense could get funky.
-- Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass)
Indianapolis Colts Over Miami Dolphins (+116)
The Colts have started the season 0-3 and are now underdogs, on the road, against Jacoby Brissett and the Dolphins. The Colts have struggled protecting Carson Wentz all season long and have been pretty awful in coverage. But at the end of the day, it just can't get any worse for this team. Things are going to turn around and the Colts will go on a run. There's too much talent on the Colts for things to stay steady.
-- Jason Radowitz (@Jason_Radowitz)
Atlanta Falcons Over Washington Football Team (+105)
The strength of the Washington Football Team is supposed to be their defense, but that side of the ball has not looked that strong the last couple of weeks. They were exposed by Josh Allen and the Bills, and the week prior allowed 29 points to a poor Giants offense. Many are quick to forget that had the Giants not jumped offsides on Washington's late missed field goal, the Football Team would be 0-3 heading into this matchup. The Falcons will look to build upon their first win of the season, and will protect their home field against a vulnerable Washington squad.
-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)