Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Top Props To Bet

NFL expert Mike Spector makes his top prop bets for the Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams matchup.
Mike Spector
Sat, October 2, 4:51 AM EDT

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Top Props To Bet

The NFC West showdown between the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams is the only game on the Week 4 slate that features two 3-0 teams. Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury are both 0-4 against Los Angeles since starting their NFL careers, and Rams head coach Sean McVay is not only 8-0 against Arizona in his tenure, but his team has covered the spread in all eight of those games. For this article’s purposes, we care more that the Rams are also just one of two teams (Buccaneers are the over) to see the over cash in all three of their games. With the highest over/under of any Week 4 game at 55 points, this is the perfect matchup to be heavily invested in on some “anytime touchdown scorer” props.

Kyler Murray has thrown for just five touchdowns in his four career games against the Rams while also getting sacked 11 times and throwing four interceptions. Last year, Murray ranked 16th in total QBR when getting pressured and 19th when facing zone defenses. This year, he ranks first in both of those categories. That is an important statistic, as the Rams were second in the league with 53 sacks last season and employ mostly zone concepts. On the other side, Matthew Stafford has thrown three touchdowns of 50 or more yards this year. To put that into context, he had just four touchdowns of 50 or more yards from 2017-2020.

Christian Kirk Anytime TD (+240)

In case you have not watched Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey play football, he is pretty good. Sean McVay usually trusts Ramsey to line up against the other team’s best receiver and take that half of the field away. When that happens, opposing quarterbacks often pepper their second, third, and fourth-best receiving options with targets so as not to challenge one of the best cover corners in the league.

We expect Ramsey to be matched up with DeAndre Hopkins all game, which should lead to plenty of opportunities for Kirk. Kirk leads all Cardinals wide receivers with 15 catches (RB Chase Edmonds leads the team with 16 overall), and his 17 targets are one off the team lead. He has scored two touchdowns through three games, and his 79.7 yards per game are 18 yards better than his next closest teammate. So it will not come as a huge surprise if Kirk is the most heavily targeted Arizona player in this game, which makes his +240 odds to find the endzone an absolute steal.

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Chase Edmonds OVER 4.5 Receptions (-105)

Cardinals running back Chase Edmonds has a team-high 16 catches on the season, and he is efficient with those receptions as they have come on 17 targets. That number extrapolated over three games suggests he is due for at least five catches in this game. The Rams employ a heavy zone scheme defensively, and with Kyler Murray likely to be under duress from Aaron Donald and the rest of the defensive line, look for a lot of dumpoffs to Edmonds who should find space to roam.

Robert Woods Anytime TD (+105)

Cooper Kupp is so on fire this year with 367 receiving yards and five touchdowns that his -190 “anytime touchdown scorer” odds present little value. Thus, this bet at plus-odds is somewhat of a flier that this game is Woods’ coming-out party. Kupp has out-targeted Woods 33-19 this year. But those 19 targets still rank second on the team and are seven more than Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee have seen.

Woods has found paydirt just once through three games, and his 41.3 yards per game are on pace to be his lowest since 2015. It is clear Woods does not have the same chemistry with Stafford early on as Kupp does, but he is also a guy who has had at least seven touchdowns in two of the last three years, so he knows how to find the endzone.

Kupp’s 367 yards and five touchdowns lead the league, but that also likely means he is the defense’s primary focus heading into this game. Arizona ranks eighth in pass defense coming into this game, allowing 202 yards per game. However, they have faced Kirk Cousins and Trevor Lawrence in the last two weeks, and the red-hot Stafford will present their greatest challenge. The Rams are favored to win the game, which means their passing attack will likely help them build the lead. Eschew the obvious pick in Kupp, and opt for the better value play with Woods.

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Top Props To Bet

Christian Kirk Anytime TD Scorer (+240)

Chase Edmonds OVER 4.5 Receptions (-105)

Robert Woods Anytime TD Scorer (+105)

Betting Odds For The Week 4 NFL Slate

Mike Spector
MikeSpector01
Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest
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