Top Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders take on the Chargers in Monday Night Football's AFC West matchup. Derek Klassen breaks down the best props to bet here.
Derrik Klassen
Sun, October 3, 6:34 AM EDT

Top Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow Anytime TD (+260) - DraftKings

This Chargers defense is solid, but the Raiders will get into the end zone at some point. They have one of the most electric offenses in the league and have several different pass-catcher archetypes to match up with anyone. That said, explosive plays may be tougher to come by in this one (we’ll get to that later), which should open the door for some Hunter Renfrow red-zone work.

To this point in the season, Renfrow ranks second on the team in red-zone targets with three. Tight end Darren Waller is first (five targets), of course, but the Chargers may be able to match up with Waller in a way previous teams have struggled to. Chargers safety Derwin James, in particular, could prove troublesome once the Raiders get into the red zone.

That should leave opportunities open for the receivers, specifically Renfrow. He’s already seen three red-zone targets this year and caught two of them, one for a score. The Raiders’ other receivers, while good at certain things have not been red zone guys thus far. Only two other receivers on the team have any red-zone targets this year, with Henry Ruggs and Willie Snead having one apiece. Unfortunately, neither of them caught their targets. Las Vegas does a good job spreading the ball around to tight ends and players out of the backfield, to be fair, but Renfrow is the Raiders wide receiver to look for here.

Los Angeles Chargers Over 3.5 Total Team Touchdowns (+120) - DraftKings

The Raiders defense is not what it appears to be. The Raiders currently rank 11th in defensive DVOA, 12th against the pass specifically, three games into the season. That is not special, but it is probably a good deal better than anyone expected of them headed into the year.

The schedule has helped out the Raiders a good amount in this regard. Credit to them for doing a decent job versus a Ravens offense missing their first-round receiver in Week 1, but their performances against Pittsburgh and Miami do not inspire me much. Beating down on a decrepit Ben Roethlisberger and Dolphins backup Jacoby Brissett is hardly enough to convince me this unit is for real.

To be fair, the Raiders pass defense should not revert to being as bad as they were last year, either. This is a solid unit, and some of their young guys (Trayvon Mullen, Nate Hobbs) look like capable NFL players, while the addition of veteran Casey Hayward has also helped. Still, against one of the league’s best quarterbacks and a loaded wide receiver corps, the Raiders defense should be in for a return to reality this week. 

Chargers WR Mike Williams First TD Scorer (+750) - DraftKings

Justin Herbert and Mike Williams were a match made in heaven. Williams, though not the league’s best separator, is a feisty player on the sideline and can go up for the ball as well as anyone in the league. Herbert has the perfect blend of aggression and arm talent to take advantage of Williams’ skill set, making them one of the NFL’s most lethal red zone connections.

Williams has five red-zone targets (second on the team) through three weeks with four catches and three touchdowns. The man is a fade and back shoulder machine and is one of the few players in the league where those “cheap” throws do not feel like wasted reps.

This Raiders secondary is probably a bit of fool’s gold right now, and it would not be shocking to see Herbert and Williams put them in their place right off the bat.

Raiders QB Derek Carr Longest Completion Under 38.5 Yards (-110) - DraftKings

This prop is a battle of titans, in a way.

Derek Carr has opened up the Raiders offense like never before, elevating his average depth of target to 9.1 yards while throwing for the second-highest explosive pass rate in the league. As a result, he is much more of a big-play generator than previous versions of himself. That said, the Chargers are as tough a team as any to pick up explosive passing plays on.

Through three weeks, the Chargers have the fourth-lowest rate of explosive passing plays allowed. Furthermore, they have only allowed one reception of over 38.5 yards this season, which was to Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb. There is no disrespect to either Carr or the Raiders’ receiving corps, but Dak Prescott is a top-five quarterback — better than Carr — and Lamb is a better receiver than anyone the Raiders have.

Structurally, it makes sense why the Chargers defense performs this way. Head coach Brandon Staley bases his defense out of two-high safety looks (with two talented safeties, no less), which means they often have more help over the top to prevent big plays at the sacrifice of allowing easier opportunities underneath and in the run game. It’s why the Chargers currently rank 21st in completion percentage allowed, and second-worst in explosive rushing plays allowed. That’s the sacrifice they have opted to make to ensure big plays through the air do not kill them. 

Top Monday Night Football Prop Bets Chargers vs. Raiders

  • Hunter Renfrow Anytime TD (+260) - DraftKings
  • Chargers Over 3.5 Total Team TDs(+120) - DraftKings
  • Mike Williams First TD Scorer (+750) - DraftKings
  • Derek Carr Longest Completion Under 38.5 Yards (-110) - DraftKings

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Derrik Klassen
QBKlass
You've seen his breakdowns and football analysis on Twitter and elsewhere. Now, Derrik Klassen brings his unmatched knowledge of the game to OddsChecker to give us his NFL picks each and every week.
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