NFL Week 5 Picks: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions

Matt O'Leary is back with Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers prediction for NFL Week 5. Does the Packer offense continue to roll?
Matt O'Leary
Sun, October 10, 5:30 AM EDT

NFL Week 5 Picks: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions

Just as everyone thought, the Cincinnati Bengals are at the top of the AFC North. They’re off to a 3-1 start after wins over the Vikings, Steelers, and Jaguars. While they’ve been excellent defensively, offensively they’ve left a lot to be desired.

On the other side, the Green Bay Packers have been playing much better football as of late. They’ve won three in a row and have scored 27 or more points in all three of those games. Even with their putrid Week 1 performance, they’re still averaging 23.8 points a game.

With eight touchdowns and no interceptions over the win streak, it’s probably a safe bet to assume that Aaron Rodgers is back and still very much so cares about winning. Let’s get into our Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers predictions for this week.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers Predictions

As I previously mentioned, the Bengals should be better on offense. They rank 20th in points and 22nd in yards in the NFL. Joe Burrow has been mostly solid though, with nine passing touchdowns, 247 yards per game, a 9.2 yards per attempt, and a 113.8 rating to his name. The story though is the defense.

They’re eighth in points allowed, seventh in yards allowed, and have only allowed 18.8 points per game so far. They’ve only allowed four passing touchdowns on the year which is good enough for sixth in the NFL.

As for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers has figured it out. He still hasn’t thrown for more than 261 yards in a game but his eight touchdowns to no turnover ratio is absolutely enough for this team. Their run game with Aaron Jones has been questionable as he’s averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt.

In fact, AJ Dillon has been much more effective averaging 4.5 yards per carry on 30 attempts. Still, one will likely anticipate the Packers to try to move the ball through the air which isn’t an easy task against this Bengals defense.

Oddsmakers are predicting a close one between the Bengals and the Packers as the line is just 3.5 in favor of Green Bay. If you told me before the season that the Packers would only be favored by 3.5 in this game, I’d have thought you were crazy.

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Green Bay has now covered three games in a row after their Week 1 blowout loss. Cincinnati on the other hand is 2-2 but they have a respectable +4.2 ATS +/-. As an away favorite, Green Bay is 5-4 for a 55.6 cover percentage since 2019.

As a home underdog, the Bengals are 7-7 in the Zac Taylor era but with the rest advantage sport just a 1-3 record with a -21.2 margin of victory. Yes, the Bengals have looked better than anticipated this year but after narrowly escaping Thursday Night over Jacksonville, I’m not so positive they keep this one close.

The Bengals defensive numbers have been excellent but they haven’t played a Quarterback as capable of Rodgers yet, That streak comes to an end this week, and Green Bay will come away with a 6-10 point win over Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers Picks

Packers -3.5 (+100)

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NFL Free Picks

Week 5 is here after a juicy Week 4. Week 4 saw Cordaralle Patterson and Sam Darnold run wild, rookie Justin Fields get his first NFL win, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals make a statement against the Rams and much, much more. This week, we'll see an NFC West clash between the Seahawks and Rams on Thursday Night Football -- that one should have no shortage of fireworks. Sunday Night Football will see two AFC heavyweights battle in the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. And Monday Night Football will see two teams decimated by injury -- the 3-1 Baltimore Ravens and the 1-3 Indianapolis Colts -- try to overcome their misfortune on the biggest stage of the week. Stick with OddsChecker and you'll get free picks for every NFL game this week from Ben Gretch, Derrik Klassen, Justis Mosqueda, Nate Tice, Katelyn Heffler, Geoff Fienberg, Jason Radowitz, Matt O'Leary, Mike Spector and more. Plus you'll be able to compare the best odds from legal sportsbooks, too.

 
Matt O'Leary
MattOLearyNY
OddsChecker sports writer Matt O'Leary brings experience sports betting advice to the OC staff. You may recognize Matt from his popular New York Jets youtube channel, but his vast knowledge of sports and betting goes well past the boundaries of New York.
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