Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins Week 5 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets
We have a battle of Florida this week as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Miami Dolphins in Week 5. Tampa is coming off an emotional win over the New England Patriots. It wasn’t the dominant effort that many were anticipating but they were able to win 19-17 over New England to improve their record to 3-1.
Miami on the other hand has really struggled. They’ve now lost three in a row and they’ve scored less than 20 points in three of their four games. Jacoby Brisset has started for the injured Tua Tagovailoa the last two weeks. With Brisset in, the passing game is limited as he has just a 4.9 yards per attempt so far.
The Bucs are heavy favorites in this one at home as oddsmakers have them laying 10 points. Let’s get into my Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins predictions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins Predictions
Outside of a rare off performance in inclement weather, the Buccaneers’ offense has been excellent so far this year. They rank fifth in points and seventh in yards. Even at age 44, Tom Brady is still putting up big numbers as he’s second in yards and third in passing touchdowns in the entire NFL.
The run game hasn’t been great but when you’re as efficient as Tampa is throwing the ball it doesn’t matter. Defensively, they haven’t been nearly as strong as they were a year ago. They’re 23rd in points allowed and 20th in yards.
A big reason for that could be injuries. Their secondary is depleted with injuries to Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, and Carlton Davis. They brought in Richard Sherman in an emergency role but even that is considered risky at this point in his career.
Will it matter against this Miami offense? They’re 31st in both points and yards and will be without their starting quarterback again this week. Myles Gaskin has essentially been nonexistent this year. Just this past week he had three yards on two carries, he was supposed to be the featured back.
For a secondary that features Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, you’d think they’d fair better against the pass but they don’t and they just can’t get off the field on third down hiving up a 54.2 third-down conversion rate which is second-worst in the NFL.
If they’re going to compete in this game, they’re going to have to slow down Tom Brady which so far, hasn’t been easy for anyone not named Bill Belichick.
Tampa Bay is just 1-3 against the spread this year, which makes me a little nervous picking this game. The 10 number is big, but I can’t possibly back Jacoby Brisset in a matchup against Tom, I’m sorry.
The Dolphins will likely have to hit 20 points to cover the number, something they’ve only done once this year. Miami is 2-2 against the spread, and they’ve been kind to gamblers over the last year or so but this is a task too tall for my book. I’m taking the Bucs with the big number at -10.