Top Thursday Night Football Player Props: Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

The Los Angeles Rams are looking to get back in the win column after their first loss. What can we expect against the Seahawks? Derrik Klassen gives his best player prop picks.
Derrik Klassen
Wed, October 6, 9:02 AM EDT

Top Thursday Night Football Player Props: Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Rams WR Robert Woods, Anytime TD at +110 (DraftKings)

Cooper Kupp is obviously the Rams’ primary red zone weapon. To this point in the year, Kupp has nine red zone targets and four touchdowns, both most on the team. It’s no wonder the odds favor him at about -130 to score anytime in this game, the best figure among any player on either team in this matchup.

The most likely guy after Kupp to get work is Robert Woods. Woods has six red zone targets and two touchdowns this season, second only to Kupp, and has perhaps gotten slightly unlucky by only earning three receptions on those targets. That should be due for some positive regression at some point, especially given Woods is such a smart player with excellent body control in the tight spaces the red zone presents.

More generally, I also just expect the Rams to score a fair amount in this game. Getting a Seahawks defense that has been generally sloppy through four games on a short week is better for the Rams than it is for the Seahawks. I trust Sean McVay and Matt Stafford to get right on a short week, even after last week’s surprising meltdown. Not sure I can say the same for Pete Carroll and his defense at this point. More points overall should mean more chances for Bobby Trees to get in the end zone.

Seahawks WR DK Metcalf, Under 5.5 Receptions at +105

Star cornerback Jalen Ramsey is going to remove someone from this game. Ramsey has done a lot of his work from the slot this year, but with Seattle not having a slot receiver that stacks up to their two outside receivers and being a team that often plays out of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) anyway, this should be a matchup where Ramsey remains outside for the most part.

Naturally, that likely means he will be handling DK Metcalf. Ramsey has all the tools to handle both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but it’s less likely that any of his teammates have the tools to handle Metcalf on every snap considering his otherworldly size and speed combination. Ramsey’s blend of length, strength, smooth hips, and hyper-aggressive ball skills make him a nightmare for someone like Metcalf, who can generally out-athlete people but will not be able to do so here.

Metcalf has earned over eight targets in each of the past three weeks, which is somewhat concerning. None of those defenses had a stud cornerback anywhere close to Ramsey’s level, though. The Titans, Vikings, and 49ers have all had some cornerback issues this year, be that due to raw talent or some injuries. Ramsey can be the eraser that none of those teams had.

I’m also expecting the Seahawks to stop leaning on this quick passing game they have been trying to get going. It’s just not what Russell Wilson does best. Metcalf has earned a few targets thanks to the team forcing this strategy, but I expect the offense to start returning to heavier personnel, tighter formations, and a run / play-action formula, much like we saw from them after the first quarter against San Francisco. That may open up Metcalf’s chances for an explosive play, but hurts his potential volume of receptions.

Los Angeles Rams, Over 3.5 Total Team Touchdowns at +100

As mentioned above, a short week against a sloppy Seahawks defense is good news for McVay and Stafford. Through four weeks, the Rams have scored more than three touchdowns against two of their opponents: Bears (Week 1) and Buccaneers (Week 3). The Bears defense is playing a lot of younger guys at cornerback this year, while the Bucs have been battling some regression and injuries at the position.

Thankfully for the Rams, the Seahawks have had some of the same issues. The Seahawks let go of Ahkello Witherspoon before the year, then lost rookie Tre Brown for the first month of the year due to injury. Brown has returned to practice this week, but it’s hard to imagine a mid-round rookie coming off injury is the key to unlocking the secondary for this game, especially on a short week.

The other outside cornerback spot has been some combination of Tre Flowers and Sidney Jones, the latter of which came over in a trade earlier this year and only recently fit into the lineup last week against the 49ers. Jones has the length profile to fit in the Seahawks system, but it’s going to take some time for him to really settle in, and the pay-off for getting him in the lineup probably does not fully show up this week.

Seattle’s defense, in general, has also just struggled to defend the pass. Miscommunications have run rampant and linebacker Bobby Wagner does not look to have the same juice he used to, which hurts the Seahawks pass defense over the middle. Seattle currently ranks 27th in pass defensive DVOA (25th overall) and it’s difficult to see why this would be the week their fortunes change.

TNF Player Prop Picks: Rams vs Seahawks

Rams WR Robert Woods, Anytime TD at +110 (DraftKings)

Seahawks WR DK Metcalf, Under 5.5 Receptions at +105

Los Angeles Rams, Over 3.5 Total Team Touchdowns at +100

Derrik Klassen
QBKlass
You've seen his breakdowns and football analysis on Twitter and elsewhere. Now, Derrik Klassen brings his unmatched knowledge of the game to OddsChecker to give us his NFL picks each and every week.
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