Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Same-Game Parlay Picks and Prediction
The Miami Dolphins have lost three consecutive games, and their offense has looked lifeless at times under backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. However, the most interesting aspect to this game will be to see how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers respond after playing arguably one of the most high-profile regular season games of all-time. Do the Buccaneers resort back to their dominant selves after escaping Foxborough with a narrow victory, or does last week’s emotionally charged game have a carry-over effect into this week? Find out what we think in our same-game parlay picks.
Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Same Game Parlay
Same Game Parlay Leg 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (Alternate Point Spread)
As we have done with our last few same-game parlays, we are adjusting the game’s point spread, this time by four points. While 10.5 points is a lot to give a team that won ten games last year, we feel comfortable that a Buccaneers team that has won 11 of their previous 12 can cover a touchdown against a Jacoby Brissett-led squad.
Since leaving New England, Tom Brady is 18-4, including a 4-0 record in the playoffs. He is coming off a game where he threw for his worst completion percentage (51%) and had 14 off-target throws, which are both the most in his time as the quarterback in Tampa Bay. He was off-target on 33% of his passes, and his 14 off-target throws were his most since Week 1 in 2014 at Miami. However, credit the greatest NFL coach of all-time in Bill Belichick, who saw Tom Brady every day in practice for 20 years, to know his tendencies and devise a game plan to frustrate him. One cannot expect the same schematic genius from Dolphins head coach Brian Flores.
Miami was held to just three points through three quarters against Indianapolis last week and managed just 203 total yards. They will find it even tougher sledding against a Buccaneers defense that you cannot run on, as evidenced by their league-leading 47.5 rush yards allowed per game. A game plan involving Jacoby Brissett throwing the ball all over the field is not a recipe for success.
Same Game Parlay Leg 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers Double Result
Last week, Tom Brady won his 41st game when trailing in the fourth quarter, the second-most all-time by a quarterback. We do not expect Tampa Bay to be often trailing in this game. For those that do not know how a double result works, this is a wager on the Buccaneers to be leading both at halftime and the end of the game. If either half ends tied or Tampa Bay is trailing at halftime or the game’s conclusion, this bet loses.
The Buccaneers have trailed at halftime in their last two games, which puts the emphasis on starting fast this week. They have been held to seven points or fewer in each of their last two first halves, but we think this offense will find its groove at home, where they have averaged 21 points in the first half through two games this season.
Same Game Parlay Leg 3: OVER 43.5 Alternate Total Points
The third leg of our parlay is in lockstep with our thinking that Tampa Bay’s offense will start fast in this game. Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard is one of the best cover cornerbacks in football, and we expect him to be primarily assigned to shadow Mike Evans. However, that opens up more opportunities for Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, and Brady and Brown narrowly missed on a couple of big plays last week. Godwin and Brown should get peppered with targets in this game if Rob Gronkowski is again ruled out, as Brady was 2-for-8 for 29 yards when targeting tight ends last week.
The over is 10-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 12 games as a home favorite and has cashed in Miami’s last four games against teams with a winning record. We even lowered the over/under by four points, making us more confident in this leg of the parlay.
Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Same-Game Parlay Picks
3-Leg Same Game Parlay @ +155
LEG 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (Alternate Point Spread)
LEG 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Tampa Bay Buccaneers Double Result
LEG 3: OVER 43.5 Alternate Total Points