NFL Player Props Week 5: Breaking Down the Five Best Bets
NFL Player Props Week 5: Breaking Down the Five Best Bets
The first month of this season has been a roller coaster, and there’s a lot of football left to play. So let’s dig into what’s most actionable from a wild first four weeks to find my favorite Week 5 props, starting with my favorite Thursday night play.
**Sony Michel — Under 22.5 rush yards (-115, DK)
Sony Michel — Under 6.5 rush attempts (-135, DK)**
Michel rushed just three times in Week 4 with Darrell Henderson back in the lineup, and his final carry came early in the second quarter as he lost a fumble. Henderson played into garbage time of the blowout loss, which followed the pattern we saw in Weeks 1 and 2, before Henderson’s injury.
In Week 1, Henderson played 94% of the snaps, and Michel got just one carry. In Week 2, Henderson left the game early in the fourth quarter, and all 10 of Michel’s carries came after that point. So the three carries Michel got last week is actually the most he’s worked into any kind of a timeshare with Henderson healthy, and he appears to have been sent to the doghouse after that second-quarter fumble, as Henderson went on to play a 90% snap share.
Henry Ruggs — Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
As a rookie last season, Ruggs didn’t earn more than five targets in a single game. This year, he’s earned at least five targets in all four.
The only time Ruggs has been close to this line was in Week 1 when he caught just two balls for 46 yards. However, in each of the three games since, he’s drawn targets more consistently, and he’s hit on some big plays to reach at least 60 yards in each game and average 83.7. That culminated last week in a game where he had a 51-yard downfield catch against a Chargers defense that had allowed just four completions on passes traveling more than 15 air yards entering the game.
That Ruggs made a big play against that defense wasn’t the whole story because he created other chances, too. He nearly caught another downfield pass on a play where he drew a blatant pass interference penalty, and then late in the contest, he was running wide downfield, and Derek Carr just overshot him. That was the second straight week where Carr has missed him downfield on what could have been a big play, but Carr’s also finding him plenty. The multiple good chances Ruggs created against a Chargers’ defense designed to defend his specific skill set speak well to his ability to continue building out a strong second season. He’s taken a step forward, and the Raiders are throwing more deliberately this season, but the numbers haven’t totally reflected that yet, and this line sure doesn’t.
Damien Williams — Over 14.5 rush attempts (-115, DK)
The Bears have been very run-heavy with Justin Fields at quarterback, and this week that responsibility will likely fall on Damien Williams’ shoulders with David Montgomery out. No. 3 back Khalil Herbert played three offensive snaps through the first three games before he got seven additional snaps in Week 4. Most of those came at the very end of the game, as Herbert ran three times in the final five plays after Williams suffered what has been described as a quad bruise and not a big deal for his Week 5 availability.
There’s some uncertainty here regarding whether Herbert might play a more significant role, but so far this year, Williams has been the clear No. 2, and Chicago has tended to lean on Montgomery as a workhorse. My expectation is with Montgomery out, and the veteran Williams will be treated similarly, as more or less the workhorse, with the rookie Herbert just a backup used to spell him when he needs a breather.
Last week, in a Bears’ win with Fields getting the start, Montgomery ran 23 times while Williams added eight carries, and Herbert also had the three late. In a blowout loss, Montgomery only got ten carries the week before, but the Bears only ran 42 offensive plays total, and nine of those were sacks. The Raiders are a formidable opponent, but they’ve given up at least 130 rushing yards to three of four opponents so far this year, and Williams has looked good as a runner so far this year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. So expect the Bears to again lean on the run, at least early in the game.
AJ Green — Under 3.5 receptions (+115, Caesars)
Green has been one of the most inefficient wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season but is coming off back-to-back games that have made him look good again. Unfortunately, I’m not buying it.
Even in those two games, Green caught just five balls each on six targets. In Weeks 1 and 2, he caught five balls total, going under this number each time. Green has a solid role in an offense that throws the ball a reasonable amount, and he’s been targeted exactly six times each week. But the 49ers have allowed just 46 receptions to wide receivers all season, tied for 10th-fewest, and 12 of those went to Davante Adams in Week 3. Last week, against the next two best wide receivers they’ve faced, they allowed four catches each to DK. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Some of that was due to the Seahawks getting away from the pass in a blowout loss. Still, the Cardinals could be in a similar situation here, and the 49ers inherently limit opposition play volume with their run-heavy style.
Run The Sims has the probability of Green going under this line at 56% based on 500 simulations of this game. Still, we’re getting plus money to fade a guy coming off two high-efficiency games who has otherwise looked completely lost for over a year.
Top NFL Player Props for Week 5 Picks
- Sony Michel — Under 22.5 rush yards (-115, DK)
- Sony Michel — Under 6.5 rush attempts (-135, DK)
- Henry Ruggs — Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)
- Damien Williams — Over 14.5 rush attempts (-115, DK)
- AJ Green — Under 3.5 receptions (+115, Caesars)