NFL Player Props Week 5: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
NFL Player Props Week 5: Top Anytime TD Scorer Bets
If there was ever going to be a week we can say "close but no cigar" it would have been Week 4. We hit on just one of our six picks but the process was correct. If you tailed just my best pick of the week you would have been a winner as Jonathan Taylor found the endzone against a maligned Dolphins defense.
The Bills dominated in a shutout, forcing five turnovers, four of them interceptions. None resulted in a defensive score but it was the right play based on the value. Austin Hooper and David Njoku both were targeted in the end zone with neither converting for a touchdown. TJ Hockenson was tied for the most targets for the Lions with 8 but again didn't find the end zone. So our evaluations were on point but things didn't go our way.
We've started off Week 5 again well, hitting on Darrell Henderson Jr. and Tyler Higbee for our Thursday night football picks. Let's carry that success into the weekend!
With Week 5 of the NFL here I'm looking for a strong week of picks and trying to build back our profit.
Nick Chubb (+100)
Not only is Nick Chubb's rushing total my pick of the week but he would be my banker if I had to choose just one guy this week. Chubb has totaled 43 carries in the last two weeks. There are rumors and disgruntled fantasy owners with Chubb but I fully expect a big game from him here in Week 5. He was stuffed on the goal line last week in Minnesota. He's scored in two out of four weeks. The Chargers have allowed the second-most yards per carry to running backs through the first four weeks and the fourth most total yards in the entire NFL to opposing running backs. I'm on the Browns in our staffs upset pick of the week column you can read here and that pick is in large part because of how I expect Chubb to run all over this Chargers defense on Sunday!
Laviska Shenault (+210)
The Jaguars lost starting wide reciever D.J. Chark last week to injury on Thursday night. Shenault in his second season quickly became quarterback Trevor Lawrence's go-to target. He caught 6 passes on 7 targets for 99 yards. The Titans have allowed the most yards and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers through the first four weeks. I also like his teammate Marvin Jones but the value on Shenault here is too good.
Allen Lazard (+285)
Now I know you're all thinking did I even watch the Packers game last week and see Randall Cobb scored twice!? Well yes, I did and I also saw that Lazard played 57 snaps compared to Cobbs 33. That was a 70 percent compared to 31 percent snap share in favor of Lazard. The Bengals have defended against wide receivers pretty well so far but they've also had to defend against some mediocre quarterback play the last three weeks. Last I checked Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP so I like our chances.
Hayden Hurst (+380)
You're going to see everyone chatter about Kyle Pitts this weekend with the breakout coming in London against the Jets. Well, I don't disagree with that but there's no value on Pitts. Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are both out this week as they didn't make the trip to London. Matt Ryan and the Falcons will be desperate for help finding receivers. Ryan and Hurst have experience playing together and that plays a part in this pick. The Jets have made a complete 180 so far in 2021 going from allowing the most touchdowns to tight ends to be one of the best in the entire NFL at defending the position. They've yet to face a tight end/quarterback duo through four weeks that is imposing. Hurst played 49 snaps compared to Pitts' 55 and that should be the same if not even more even this Sunday. So as I do expect Pitts to have a good game based on sheer volume I also expect Hurst to play a key role in London.
Leonard Fournette (+150)
Fournette has dominated the Tampa backfield since Week 1. Miami has allowed 6 total touchdowns to opposing running backs through the first four weeks. That's tied for the second-most in the NFL. He is playing over 58 percent of the snaps and receiving over two-thirds of the touches out of the backfield. This is the first week Lenny finds the endzone!
Jonnu Smith (+320)
A trend you'll see in my touchdown picks on a weekly basis is me picking on the Houston Texans. Hunter Henry scored the first touchdown of the night last week in the Patriots matchup with Tom Brady and the Bucs. Shoutout to our very own Geoff Feinberg for having a bet on Henry to score first last week! While the focus is on Henry, Jonnu also snuck his way into the endzone last week. The reason I like Jonnu to score again is simple. Opposing tight ends do damage when facing Houston. Dawson Knox just scored twice last week against them and in Week 1 Chris Manhertz scored. They've allowed, 7/70/1, 11/107/0, 3/53/0, and 6/45/2 respectively to tight ends through the first four weeks. Henry received 73 percent of the snaps last week as compared to 53 percent by Jonnu Smith. He continues to out snap Jonnu, although Jonnu has received two more targets on the season and 5 red-zone targets compared to Henry's 2.
Trey Lance (+230)
At the time of writing this, Trey Lance has an opportunity to get his first career start in the NFL in Week 5 facing the undefeated division rival Arizona Cardinals on the road. Sounds fun right? Well last week after Lance entered the game for an injured Jimmy Garrappolo, he rushed 7 times for 41 yards. In week 3 Kyle Shanahan drew up a designed run at the goal line for Lance on Sunday night football. The 49ers are banged up at running back right now and the backfield remains a mystery but Lance being a rookie may rely on his feet quite a bit this Sunday. Arizona has been abysmal defending the run so far so that helps our chances.
Justin Fields (+225) and Khalil Herbert (+750)
I'm going with two Bears here. The popular name is Damien Williams who will step in as the starting running back with starter David Montgomery injured. Williams is battling a thigh injury so there's a chance we see Fields and Herbert have opportunities come Sunday. I'm going with Fields who hasn't run much since taking over the quarterback job but I'm expecting the Bears to finally start utilizing Fields' talent in every capacity and that includes his rushing ability. At college in 2019, Fields played in 14 games rushing for 10 scores. As a rookie, I'm expecting him at some point to utilize this talent at the pro level. The Raiders have allowed the 5th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks and 5 rushing scores on the season.
For many of the same reasons, I like Fields I also like Khalil Herbert to score. The Raiders have allowed the fourth-highest rushing yards after contact (YAC). Herbert played 7 snaps after Montgomery left the game compared to Williams's 19 snaps. Herbert had three carries on his 7 snaps so there are signs of usage. The Raiders have allowed at least one rushing touchdown to a running back in every game to this point. Basically, this is a roll of the dice on a backup running back but worth it given the unknown. If only one of them scores we are profiting but let's go for both!
Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Nick Chubb (+100)
- Laviska Shenault (+210)
- Allen Lazard (+285)
- Hayden Hurst (+380)
- Leonard Fournette (+150)
- Jonnu Smith (+320)
- Trey Lance (+230)
- Justin Fields (+225)
- Khalil Herbert (+750)
Tom Viera is an experienced betting and fantasy sports writer. Tom brings a vast knowledge of all things NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer to the OddsChecker stable of handicappers.