NFL Week 5 Picks: Against The Spread Picks for Every Sunday Game

NFL Expert Matt O'Leary makes his picks for the Week 5 slate. Find out who he likes this week right here.
Matt O'Leary
Sun, October 10, 5:23 AM EDT

NFL Week 5 Picks: Against The Spread Picks for every Sunday game

We’re now a quarter of the way through the NFL season as we head into Week 5. This week, we will be treated to a London game at 9:30 am ET between the New York Jets and the Atlanta Falcons before getting into the usual schedule.

At 1:00 pm you have the battle of Florida between the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers and you also have a tight AFC matchup between the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers.

The later games are likely of more interest as it features a rivalry game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants as well as an NFC West battle between the San Francisco 49ers and the unbeaten Arizona Cardinals.

We’re not here to get into the primetime games. Instead, I’ll be giving you my picks and predictions for every Sunday afternoon game this week.

NFL Week 5 Sunday Afternoon Picks

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons (9:30 am Kickoff)

Does Atlanta deserve to be favored by three points over anybody on a neutral site field? In a word, no. Atlanta sports one of the worst defenses in the league and rookie Zach Wilson is off a monster performance against the Titans in Week 4. I think that continues in a high-scoring affair in London as the Jets finally show a competent NFL offense. Also, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage won’t be making the trip to England.

Jets +3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are coming off a big loss to the Dallas Cowboys in a bit of a letdown game. After starting their season with a win, the Eagles have come crashing back down to earth with three losses in a row. Is it fair to ask Jalen Hurts to go on the road and keep this to a field goal game against the NFL’s third-ranked defense? I don’t think so. Also, how about Sam Darnold with five rushing touchdowns in four games, that’s a new one.

Panthers -3

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals

This line only being three points is a little weird to me. It’s almost like Vegas knows something that we don’t. The Bengals just barely escaped last Thursday with a win over the Jaguars while the Packers made it three in a row with a decisive 10 points win over Pittsburgh. I guess I’m falling in the Vegas trap because I like the Packers at -3. Cincinnati feels like a fraudulent 3-1 team and will likely be exposed when having to play a true contender.

Packers -3

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Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The Broncos will likely be forced to start Drew Lock this week in place of the injured Teddy Bridgewater. Lock against this Pittsburgh defense is not something I see going very well for him. It’s not like Ben Roethlisberger has shown a ton to give you a bunch of confidence either but with the home team getting half a point I guess I’ll take the home team. Expect a low-scoring slop fest in this one.

Steelers +0.5

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

I’m very mad at myself for buying into the Lions after a surprising performance against the Baltimore Ravens. I won’t be making that mistake again, especially on the road. Minnesota desperately needs this game sitting at 1-3 with just seven points to their name in Week 4. Luckily for them, the Browns defense and the Lions defense are vastly different. Detroit has allowed the fourth-most points in the league. Expect a bounce-back for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings.

Vikings -10

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans

The Houston Texans look like they’re taking the 2020 Jaguars route. Win their first game and then do absolutely nothing the rest of the way. They’ve scored nine points in their last two games and now have to face a Bill Belichick defense. Poor, Davis Mills the rookie doesn’t stand a chance.

Patriots -8.5

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

I want zero part of the Jaguars after the week they’ve had. Urban Meyer has been an absolute embarrassment so far during his tenure in Jacksonville and the Titans are coming off an ugly loss to the winless Jets. The Jags roll over and die, with the Titans' offense getting themselves back in gear against the 27th overall defense in the league.

Titans -4.5

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Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After a surprise 10 win season in 2020, the Dolphins just don’t look very good this year. Sure, it doesn’t help having Tua Tagovailoa out and having to start Jacoby Brissett but it goes deeper than that. They’re the 25th defense in the NFL and have one of the best cornerback duos in football, it doesn’t make much sense. Regardless, Tampa didn’t have the performance they wanted offensively on Sunday Night Football last week and I think they take it out on the beat-up Dolphins. Don’t be afraid of the big number, this one has blowout potential written all over it.

Buccaneers -9.5

New Orleans Saints vs Washington Football Team

The Saints have been hard to figure out. They’ve had two dominant performances and two tough performances so far this year and they’re coming off a surprising loss at home to the Giants in Week 4. While the offense has been inconsistent, defensively they’re excellent ranking fifth overall. Jack Del Rio hasn’t had the same luck with his unit that ranks 30th in the NFL. They’ve allowed 73 points over the past two weeks. In a game that features just a two-point spread, give me the better defense overall.

Saints -2

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers

This should be one of the best games of the week. It features two young quarterbacks and two good coaches who have their teams at 3-1. Cleveland’s running back duo should be the difference in this one as the Chargers rank just 29th against the run this year. That’s a bad sign against Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Browns +2.5

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

Is this a trap game? Maybe but I’m not betting against this Cardinals offense until they give me a reason to. They’re averaging 35 points per game and the 49ers defense has taken a step back to just mediocre this year. There’s a good chance that Trey Lance will be making his first start in the NFL this week as Jimmy Garoppolo is banged up this week.

Cardinals -4.5

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

The Giants had a nice road win and their young quarterback Daniel Jones looked really good in Week 4 against a great defense. This week though, they’re tasked with slowing down Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The Dallas offense has finally hit their stride and I’m just not sold on the Giants having enough to keep pace.

Cowboys -7

Week 5 Picks

Jets +3

Eagles -3

Packers -3

Steelers +0.5

Vikings -10

Patriots -8.5

Titans -4.5

Buccaneers -9.5

Saints -2

Browns +2.5

Cardinals -4.5

Cowboys -7

CLICK HERE FOR FULL WEEK 5 SLATE

Matt O'Leary
MattOLearyNY
OddsChecker sports writer Matt O'Leary brings experience sports betting advice to the OC staff. You may recognize Matt from his popular New York Jets youtube channel, but his vast knowledge of sports and betting goes well past the boundaries of New York.
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