NFL Week 5 Picks: Top Running Back Anytime TD Scorer Bets
Touchdown props are a blast, but touchdowns can also be fairly random. So I like to look at players who have a little longer odds, and this week there are a few secondary running backs who stand out as having better chances to score than their odds might indicate.
Wayne Gallman (+1800)
Gallman got his first run of the season late in the Falcons' close Week 4 loss to Washington, and he looked good, racking up 29 yards on six carries. Atlanta has been leaning on their running backs in the red zone so far this year, with Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis accounting for six of their nine offensive TDs.
Some of those have been because of Patterson's unique skill set, and he scored twice while split out wide last week. However, without their top two wide receivers, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, I expect the Falcons to do more of that in Week 5 in their early Sunday game against the Jets in London. That might open more opportunity for Gallman alongside Davis in the backfield, and with the Falcons short on playmakers, they might just want to see more from Gallman after Davis's slow start to the season.
It wouldn't be that surprising to see Gallman get eight or more touches in this game, and it would just be a matter of whether he could be in a position to punch in a short touchdown. I also like Gallman as the last touchdown scorer for +4000 at DraftKings; on the idea, there are situations where the Falcons might turn to him if they are in control late.
Larry Rountree (+600)
Rountree got a bit more work last week than he had up until Week 4, carrying the ball 11 times after just 13 rushes across the first three games combined. He's the bigger back for the Chargers who have gotten some short-yardage work, and Rountree has five carries in the red zone so far this year, including a carry from the 1-yard line against the Chiefs two weeks ago and a carry from the 7-yard line last week against the Raiders.
Rountree hasn't exactly been effective so far this year. Still, the team seems to see him as a potential goal-line back at this stage of their season, as Austin Ekeler is so heavily involved in their passing game, and fellow backup Justin Jackson profiles as a smaller, backup pass-catching back as well. So I like the odds for a potential short score.
Ty'Son Williams (+600)
Williams was a surprise inactive in Week 4, but head coach John Harbaugh was quick to clarify that he didn't do anything wrong, and it seemed to be a numbers game as they wanted to get Le'Veon Bell an opportunity in live-action. In that game, Latavius Murray played the biggest snap share of any Ravens' back so far this year, while Bell mixed in and Devonta Freeman continued to not have much of an impact. In addition, the Ravens weren't particularly effective running the ball overall, needing Lamar Jackson's final-play rush to extend their NFL-record-tying streak of 100-yard rushing games.
I'm reading the tea leaves a bit here, but Williams has averaged 6.1 yards per carry on 27 rushes so far this year, substantially more than Murray's 3.4 YPC on 44 attempts as the only two backs on the roster that have carried the ball more than ten times. There have been calls for Williams to be active this week from Ravens' blogs, and I do think the team will shuffle things this week, potentially making Freeman inactive this time or perhaps deactivating Bell again.
If Williams were to be active, I think he'd be right back in the mix to lead the team in rushing attempts, and he certainly would be a nice ticket to have at 6/1 odds to score. He already has one rushing touchdown this year back in Week 1.
Top Running Back Anytime TD Scorer Bets
- Wayne Gallman (+1800)
- Larry Rountree (+600)
- Ty'Son Williams (+600)