OddsChecker Staff Roundtable: Week 5 NFL Upset Picks and Predictions
Upset picks aren't supposed to be easy, but apparently, no one passed that memo on to our staff.
After a week in which our experts went 5-3, you'd be sitting on $1,997 of profit assuming you bet $100 on each of our expert's recommendations.
That's good for an ROI of 83.2%. Pretttty good.
In addition to an ever-growing abundance of top-notch content, our staff will be providing us with their favorite upset picks each week of the season.
Now, the word “upset” could mean many different things to many different people. But for the purpose of this piece, we’re focusing entirely on moneyline plays.
In other words, we’re picking surprise winners and losers. Let’s get to it!
Week 5 NFL Upset Picks and Predictions
Chicago Bears Over Las Vegas Raiders (+210)
A 3-0 start may have led to people being too high on the Raiders. Vegas enters this contest ranking 22nd in Offensive DVOA and 15th in Defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Can we really, with full confidence, say that they're 2.5 points better than the Bears on a neutral field? Are we really only giving the Bears a 32.3% implied probability of winning this one? Chicago ranks eighth in the league defensively, and their offense looked a heck of a lot better last week with Bill Lazor calling plays. Matt Nagy's vanilla milkshake offense was clearly holding this team back. Chicago's no stranger to winning games as road dogs -- they've done so four times in 10 tries since 2020. I'll take the tasty odds here.
-- Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)
Jacksonville Jaguars Over Tennessee Titans (+180)
The entire betting world is going to be backing the Titans to cover the 4.5 points against the Jags this weekend. So, I’m fading the public. Everyone is focusing on how big of a mess Urban Meyer is as a head coach, and he certainly is, but you’re also forgetting how bad this Titans defense is. I love this for a Trevor Lawrence get-right game spot. I think the Titans are going to come into this game expecting the Jags to kind of roll over and die, but I don’t think they’re a good enough team this season to do that. Give me the Jags on the moneyline in an extremely ugly game.
-- Brian Good (@BeGood1219)
Cincinnati Bengals Over Green Bay Packers (+135)
I feel like this is a really good 'spot' game for the Bengals coming off extra rest versus a Packer team playing in its second consecutive game against an AFC North opponent. Injuries to the Packers secondary will play a key role in this outcome. The Bengals get their biggest win of the Joe Burrow era.
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
Buffalo Bills Over Kansas City Chiefs (+132)
The Bills offense has been more of a rollercoaster than they may have been hoping for, but this is the perfect game to get things headed in the right direction. Kansas City's defense may be the worst in the league, and Bills quarterback Josh Allen is talented enough to beat up on them for a handful of explosive plays. If Buffalo's defense can at least hold Patrick Mahomes to an average performance (for him, of course), the Bills have a shot.
-- Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass)
New York Jets Over Atlanta Falcons (+130)
I am doing what several of our other experts refuse to do, or are ashamed to do, and that is picking the New York Jets to win a football game outright. First, the game is in London, and it is anyone's guess if Atlanta's players will be motivated after making a cross-country trip. In addition, Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley did not make the trip to London with the team for personal reasons. So that means Atlanta's passing game weapons are Kyle Pitts, Cordarelle Patterson, and......? The Jets showed what they can do to a team that is lacking passing game options when they knocked off the Titans last week minus their best two receivers. New York will pull a second straight upset this week.
-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)
After a 27-24 win last week, the Jets are poised to start a winning streak in London. New York is getting healthy on offense and has a terrific defensive line that should run right through the Falcons pass protection. Meanwhile, the talk in Atlanta is how much longer Matt Ryan will be a quarterback. One team has all the momentum while the other team has none. Give me the Jets!
-- Jason Radowitz (@Jason_Radowitz)
Cleveland Browns Over Los Angeles Chargers (+115)
One of the best games on the slate this week is the Cleveland Browns against the Los Angeles Chargers. These teams are pretty evenly matched but where Cleveland has the advantage is the run game. They have the number one rushing attack with the combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The weakness of this Chargers team is their run defense, which means it could be a long day of trying to stop the Browns.
-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)
Now 4-0 on our upset pick of the week! This is the first week in which there wasn't one game that stands out to me that I thought oddsmakers had wrong. I am a believer in both of these teams but more so I believe in the Browns as a complete unit. If this was a home game for Cleveland the line would be flipped in their favor. Both teams come into this game with a 3-1 record. I know there are rumors about Baker Mayfield's left shoulder injury impeding his abilities but that's not why I like Cleveland this week. I like the Browns because of their sheer ability to run the football. The Browns lead the league in rushing yards (177 per game). Meanwhile, the Chargers are the fourth-worst team defending the run. I fully expect Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to absolutely churn yards and eat this Sunday. Congrats to whoever rosters them in fantasy this week! The Browns pass rush is too dynamic for the Chargers offensive line, as they are tied for the league lead in sacks. This game will be close but let's get this streak to 5-0 with a Browns upset this Sunday. Best of luck if you tail!
-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)