Sunday Night Football Player Props: Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Picks
Week 5's Sunday Night Football matchup features two of the best teams in the NFL as the Bills take on the Chiefs in primetime. In preparation, NFL expert Derrik Klassen gives is his Sunday Night Football player prop plays for Bills vs. Chiefs.
Bills RB Devin Singletary, Anytime TD Scorer @ +250
As a long-term fantasy play, Devin Singletary’s recent usage has been worrisome. His snap count has dropped from 75% in Week 1, to 66% in Week 2, and now to the low-40% range in Weeks 3 and 4. Singletary’s targets have also dropped by at least one in each game since Week 1. For that reason, it’s not hard to see why the odds for a Singletary score have fallen compared to what they probably were early on.
All that being said, this is the perfect week for Singletary to pop off. It’s not just that the Chiefs’ defense is bad, it’s the particular ways in which they are bad that open things up for Singletary’s skill set.
The Chiefs have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate in the league through four weeks, according to Sharp Football. Their defensive line is largely a disaster outside of Chris Jones, while none of their linebackers would be good enough to start on almost any other team in the league — perhaps save for Willie Gay, who is barely coming off injury this week and has yet to play in 2021. He will be rusty even if he does play, most likely.
Those linebackers are bad in coverage and, more generally, in space, too. Rookie Nick Bolton was made to look like a sub-NFL athlete by Philadelphia’s running backs last week. Teammate Nick Niemann is constantly lost and is not a very reliable tackler.
Singletary has his best chance of the year to find explosive runs, in addition to favorable matchups in the passing game. I also expect the Bills to just score a ton in general, which should raise Singletary’s chances to be one of the guys to find the end zone.
Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Over 51.5 Rushing Yards @ -115
A lot has been made about Buffalo’s defense through the first month of the season. They are a good unit, make no mistake, but their schedule has more to do with their No.1 ranked DVOA defense than anything else. In addition to poor quarterback opponents, most of the offensive line the Bills have faced are among the league’s worst.
The Bills have faced the Steelers, Dolphins, Football Team, and Texans. All but the Football Team ranked in the bottom six in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards, including Houston and Pittsburgh sitting as the bottom two. Washington is the only decent offensive line the Bills front seven has faced and even they are a dead-average offensive line. Buffalo’s defensive line will not be so fortunate this week.
We all think of the Chiefs as a passing team — rightfully so — but they have been lights out in the ground game this season. With a revamped offensive line geared toward generating push and adding gap run schemes to the offense, the Chiefs’ running game has ascended to fourth in the league by DVOA. Their offensive line ranks fifth in adjusted line yards, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire has finally grown into his own and become a stud running back.
Edwards-Helaire has produced two consecutive 100-yard games, one of which was against a stout Eagles defensive line. This Chiefs O-line is getting movement and Edwards-Helaire has become much more comfortable with reading the blocks in front of him and getting up the field with confidence when a lane presents itself. Maybe he will not clear 100 yards this game, but he can at least get just over half of that.
Bills TE Dawson Knox, Over 3.5 Receptions @ -105
As mentioned beforehand, the Chiefs’ linebackers are bad. None of them are playing well right now. By the eye test, they look like they may be the worst linebacker unit in the league — a crown they are fervently fighting to maintain over the Eagles.
The numbers bear out their issues in coverage, too. Through four games, Kansas City has allowed a 23% target share to tight ends, according to Sharp Football, which is good for sixth-highest in the league. They have also allowed a 60% success rate on those targets, putting them at 26th. Sure, they have faced a few teams that generally like to throw to their tight ends anyway, including Cleveland and Philadelphia, but the Bills have all the opportunity in the world to do the same in this matchup, if they so please.
Knox has also earned more than three receptions in all but one game this season, which was the 35-0 blowout over Miami. Knox caught at least four passes in the other three games, including five last week against Houston. Granted, Knox is not the most explosive threat from the tight end position, but he’s a reliable short-yardage and red zone guy for the Bills, which is particularly valuable for an offense whose top three receivers are all average height or shorter.