Top Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens
Top Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, Over 1.5 Passing TDs @ -110
This is more of an “it has to happen at some point” bet than anything else. Lamar Jackson is simply playing too well right now for him to continue only tossing one touchdown per contest. Some of that has to do with the Ravens being a run-heavy team in the red zone (and rightfully so), but it’s also that his players were regularly dropping passes through the first three weeks of the season, especially in the red zone. Things looked better in that respect last week against a good Denver defense and the hope is that it can continue.
Jackson has also never gone five games in a row with fewer than two touchdown passes in his career. Again, some of that is circumstance and bad luck right now, but Jackson is just too good at his job to go another week with just one passing touchdown. The Colts defense is also tied with the Buccaneers and Falcons for most passing touchdowns allowed per game, so this is the perfect opportunity for Jackson to find those scores through the air.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, Over 294.5 Passing + Rushing Yards @ -115
Lamar Jackson has earned at least 310 yards in every game this season. He eclipsed the 340-yard mark in every game but Week 1 against the Raiders, a game in which Baltimore’s offensive line was out of sorts at the time and was up against one of the best pass-rush duos in the NFL this season. Jackson has taken on the burden of the offense once again and is playing out of his mind, throwing the ball further down the field than ever before while remaining efficient as a runner.
There is little reason to believe the Colts of all teams can slow him down.
For one, the Colts pass defense has been horrid. Safety Julian Blackmon is a stud and nickel cornerback Kenny Moore can play, but the rest of the secondary is a tire fire right now. They rank 26th in pass defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, through four weeks, sandwiching them between Tennessee and Seattle. What’s more, they have been prone to explosive passing plays. They have allowed explosive passes at an 11% rate, good for sixth-highest in the league, according to Sharp Football. You know which quarterback leads the league in explosive pass rate (14%) and yards per completion (14.4)? That’s right, it’s Lamar Jackson.
In fairness to the Colts, their run defense has been nice. They rank fifth in DVOA and have generally held their own, even against Derrick Henry (though he did win the war of attrition in the end, as he does). They have not faced a running quarterback like Lamar Jackson, though. Jackson presents a completely different element to the run game that may give some fits to Indianapolis’ linebackers, and I’d much rather bank on Jackson than those Colts linebackers.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, Under 76.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards @ -115
Jonathan Taylor had a rough go of things early season. Between the team’s up-and-down run blocking, inability to stretch the field in the pass game, and red zone woes, Taylor was put in an extremely difficult spot to try and produce from. Last week’s match against a putrid Miami Dolphins run defense unit was a reprieve, but this week’s game against Baltimore presents a much tougher task.
Baltimore’s run defense ranks 10th by DVOA right now. That is not stellar, to be clear, but it’s comfortably above average. They completely shut down a Chiefs run game in Week 2 that looks much improved this year, as well as kept the Lions’ running backs to just 3.4 yards per carry in Week 3. Some sloppy tackling last week against the Broncos gave way to a couple of big runs, but that’s generally not an issue with them, and should not be this week against the Colts.
Moreover, the Ravens do not allow many targets to running backs and they defend them very well when they do. Through four weeks, the Ravens rank eighth-lowest in targets allowed to running backs. On those targets, they rank 10th in success rate allowed and ninth in yards allowed. Taylor is not a useless pass-catcher by any means, but he probably is not the guy to break the mold here and be a game-changer in the passing game against this Ravens defense.
Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox, Anytime Touchdown @ +550
This might feel like an overreaction to Mo Alie-Cox snagging two touchdowns last week, and that’s partly true. It was good to see Alie-Cox be given a larger role in the red zone, especially considering the Colts desperately need all the receiving help they can get right now. Alie-Cox’s two touchdowns is not the most encouraging figure for his future production, though. It’s his snap count.
Alie-Cox played 40% of offensive snaps in Week 2 and 46% in Week 3. In Week 4 against the Dolphins, that number shot up to 69%, which was the highest mark for any game in his career, according to Pro Football Reference.
Maybe Alie-Cox will not outright supplant Doyle, but if he continues to command at least 55%-or-more of offensive snaps, he should get his chances to find the end zone.
Top Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Colts vs. Ravens
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, Over 1.5 Passing TDs @ -110
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, Over 294.5 Passing + Rushing Yards @ -115
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, Under 76.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards @ -115
Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox, Anytime Touchdown @ +550