Monday Night Football Picks: Our Staff's Top Bets for Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
Fifteen down, one to go.
The only game that remains for Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season is the Monday Night Football matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts.
After the over hit in just four and seven games over the last two weeks, respectively, Week 5 has seen nine games go over the projected total. Favorites also had a strong week, covering in nine of 15 thus far, and winning 11 overall.
Tonight's game could have big implications for both teams. The 3-1 Ravens could put themselves ahead in the log-jammed AFC North. Meanwhile, the 1-3 Colts can ill afford to drop another game so early in the season if they want to compete for a playoff spot.
In addition to an ever-growing abundance of top-notch content, our staff will be providing us with their favorite overall plays each week of the season.
For this piece, our staff will be covering whatever bets they feel strongest about for the Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup -- no limitations. Let’s get to it!
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts Picks and Predictions
Baltimore Ravens -7.0 (-110)
The raw scoring numbers do not reflect it, but Lamar Jackson is playing out of his mind right now. He has the highest average depth of target in the league and is still completing passes at a slightly higher rate than expected, per Next Gen Stats. His 8.7 yards per attempt and 14.4 yards per completion would also be career-highs if the season ended right now, and the latter figure leads the league. Jackson now gets to take that level of play into a Colts defense that has not been able to defend the pass at all this season. I expect a comfortable Ravens win.
-- Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass)
The Colts offense has struggled to put up points this year, cracking 25 just once. Baltimore’s offense has been shaky so far in 2021 but Lamar Jackson has been good in his career at home and especially against the AFC South, going 5-1 against that division in his career. A banged-up Colts team going on the road and playing a tight game is a big ask. Baltimore wins and wins big this week.
-- Matt O’Leary (@MattOLearyNY)
Indianapolis Colts +7.0 (+100)
The Colts have become one of the best defenses against the run this season. While nothing else has gone particularly right for this group, the Colts have way too much talent to be a touchdown underdog against most teams in the NFL. Knowing that the Ravens will want to run the ball for more than 100 yards, there's a good chance the game plan is to run, run, run. Good luck against this Colts defense!
-- Jason Radowitz (@Jason_Radowitz)
Indianapolis Colts Under 19.5 Total Points (-115)
The Colts are without two of their best starters on the offensive line. The Ravens tend to play a lot more aggressively in primetime at home, so look for head coach John Harbaugh to take advantage of Indianapolis' offensive line issues and dial-up pressure all night. On the other side, Baltimore's ball-control offense will limit possessions for the Colts, which will make surpassing a team total of 19.5 a tough task tonight.
-- Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)
Jonathan Taylor Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Taylor has been averaging 6.4 yards a carry in his last two games, and while no one has rushed for 60 yards against the Ravens this season, they've also yet to face a running back who has gotten more than 15 carries in a game. The Colts must control the ball tonight to have a chance, and I suspect a big night from Taylor, whose over 12.5 carries (-120) is also very tempting. (Sorry for breaking the rules and sneaking in an extra suggestion friends).
-- Geoff Fienberg (@gfienberg17)
I can see why the line is set at 56.5 rushing yards for Jonathan Taylor in tonight's matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens defense has yet to allow a running back to rush for over 56 yards on the season. They did, however, give up a combined 89 rushing yards to D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams in Week 3 and a combined 104 rushing yards to Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams in Week 4. Two examples of backfields that have been splitting work between two backs. Jonathan Taylor is the clear workhorse for the Indianapolis Colts and has rushed over 63 yards in back-to-back weeks, including a 103 rushing yard performance last week. The Colts will want to control the time of possession to keep Lamar Jackson off the field, and the best way to do that is to establish their run game. You can feel confident that Jonathan Taylor will hit the over on 56.5 rushing yards against the Ravens on Monday Night Football.
-- Nate Hamilton (@DomiNateFF)
Carson Wentz Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-110)
We’ve seen two completely different defenses from Baltimore in their first four games. In Week 1 and Week 2, they were shredded by Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes. In Weeks 3 and 4, they shut down Jared Goff and Teddy Bridgewater/Drew Lock. Carson Wentz falls somewhere in between Carr/Mahomes and Goff/Bridgewater/Lock. Wentz has surpassed the 227.5-yard mark in three of his four games this year. 228 yards is not a big ask for Wentz, who needs to start lifting his team to some wins if they want a shot at the playoffs. I like a big game from Michael Pittman and a decent game from Wentz. 250 yards should be easily doable for the Colts signal-caller.
-- Brian Good (@BeGood1219)
Latavius Murray Over 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
Murray lead the Ravens backfield in snaps and rushes last week. He played 45 snaps good for over 62 percent of the offensive plays and ran the ball 18 times. Ty'Son Williams was inactive for the game and Le'Veon Bell trailed Murray with just 20 snaps and 4 rushing attempts. Last week, it seemed clear Murray had taken over the Ravens backfield and his running style fits what Baltimore's offense tries to do. Things can still change, but it appears Murray is the lead back in this Ravens offense that led the NFL in rush attempts a year ago. A little bonus prop I love as well tonight is Marquise Brown Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-110) -- He's topped this every week so far and the Colts have allowed at least a 25-yard reception or more every week. Best of luck if you tail!
-- Tom Viera (@Tom_Viera)
Carson Wentz Over 194.5 Passing Yards + Jack Doyle 10+ Receiving Yards + Mo Alie-Cox 5+ Receiving Yards (+125) - DraftKings
All things told, this is actually a fairly conservative same-game parlay. The Ravens are allowing an average of 293.3 passing yards per game this season, though that number is inflated by a monster Week 1 performance from Derek Carr. Still, 194.5 is a number Wentz has surpassed with ease in 20 of his last 23 full games. He should be able to get there tonight. The next piece to the puzzle is the tight end production. Baltimore has ceded an average of 84 yards per game to tight ends, which is second-most to only the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens have also been the most targeted team at the position...by far (11.3 targets per game). Meanwhile, Doyle's had double-digit yards in nine straight games, and MAC has recorded nine or more in 12 of his last 14 outings.
-- Elisha Twerski (@ElishaTwerski)