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NFL expert Mike Spector breaks down his picks for a 3-leg same-game parlay for the Bears vs. Packers this Sunday.
ANALYSIS

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers: Same-Game Parlay Picks

The rivalry between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears is the oldest and arguably best rivalry in the NFL. These two teams have played games against each other for 100 years, as their first meeting came back in 1921. The rivalry has been dominated by the Packers recently, who have won 19 of their last 23 meetings dating back to the start of last decade. Given the success of each team over the last month, this game is an essential early-season contest for both teams. The Packers (4-1) are one game ahead of the Bears (3-2) in the NFC North standings, and the two teams have won six consecutive games between them. So which team will leave Soldier Field with their winning streak intact? Find out with our three-leg same-game parlay that pays odds of +160.

Bears vs. Packers Same-Game Parlay Picks

Green Bay Packers +3.5 points (Alternate Spread)

Given how well Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers seemingly plays each week, it may surprise you to learn that last week’s 344-yard performance against Cincinnati was his first 300-yard passing game of the year (66th of his career). Nearly 60% of those yards went to Davante Adams, who had his first career 200-yard receiving game, and finished with a stat line of 11-206-1. Adams has been peppered with targets this year, as his 38% targets per route run percentage lead the NFL (min. 100 routes).

The Chicago Bears have won three of their last four games, but their method has been surprising. The Bears have finished with more rushing yards than passing yards in each of those games, as they have yet to truly unleash the arm of rookie quarterback Justin Fields. Fields has yet to attempt more than 20 passes in a game, and he has finished with better than a 60% completion percentage just once in four starts. As a result, Green Bay’s secondary is ripe for the picking, especially without Jaire Alexander handling one side of the field. However, it will be interesting to see if head coach Matt Nagy takes the reins off Fields in this game. Either way, we like the comfort in Green Bay getting more than a field goal with this alternate spread.

OVER 38.5 points (Alternate Total Points)

Both the Packers and Bears have been profitable to the under this year, as the under has cashed in four of five Chicago games and three of five Green Bay games. However, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings at Soldier Field, and Aaron Rodgers will not be intimidated by the Bears defense.

Chicago enters this game with the seventh-ranked scoring defense and has allowed 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. However, they have not faced a Murderer’s Row of quarterbacks in that span, having faced Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr. Aaron Rodgers is on another level, and the fear of his play-making ability alone will open up running lanes for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

In addition, we like Green Bay to be a lot more aggressive on offense, given the struggles of kicker Mason Crosby. Crosby missed three field goals in the final 10:16 of last week’s win over the Bengals before finally making the game-winning kick in overtime. It was the first time since 1970 that a game had five combined missed field goals in the fourth quarter or overtime. With less confidence in Crosby, look for head coach Matt LaFleur to take more chances, which could pay big dividends.

We also think the Bears will do their part in the scoring, as Green Bay’s defense enters this game, allowing 24.4 PPG. So if Chicago can manage even 17 points, we feel good about going over this alternate total.

Green Bay Packers Team Total OVER 13.5 First Half Points

This is by far the riskiest leg of our parlay, as the Bears have allowed 13, 0, 10, 0, and 3 first-half points in their five games this year. While Chicago went into their last five games with a more conservative game plan, Matt Nagy likely will realize he can only hold the Green Bay offense down for so long and will take more shots than usual early in the game. Instead of a grind-it-out approach that the Bears typically employ, this should lead to more possessions for the Packers, and the aggressive mentality of their own should pay off with at least two touchdowns.

Bears vs. Packers Same-Game Parlay Picks

3-Leg Same Game Parlay (+160): Risk $100 to win $160

  • Packers +3.5 points (Alternate Spread)
  • OVER 38.5 points (Alternate Total Points)
  • Packers Team Total OVER 13.5 First Half Points

Wager on same-game parlays with any of the following sportsbooks:

NFL Free Picks: Week 6 is here after a wild Week 5. Week 5 saw Cordaralle Patterson and Kyle Pitts dominate the world stage in London. The Packers and Bengals back and forth overtime game with tons of botched field goals. Tom Brady and company continue to dominate. The Bills rolled over the Chiefs and are now AFC title favorites. The Patriots, Eagles, and Chargers all come out on top with 4th quarter comebacks. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals remain the lone unbeaten team and much, much more. This week, we'll see an NFC clash between the Buccaneers and Eagles on Thursday Night Football -- that one should be a ton of fun. A rivalry as old as time as the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears square off. The Arizona Cardinals put their undefeated record on the line against the Cleveland Browns, and on Monday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills will look to stay red-hot facing the Tennessee Titans. Hang with OddsChecker and you'll get free picks for every NFL game this week from Ben Gretch, Derrik Klassen, Justis Mosqueda, Nate Tice, Katelyn Heffler, Geoff Fienberg, Jason Radowitz, Matt O'Leary, Mike Spector, and more. Plus, you'll be able to compare the best odds from legal sportsbooks, too.

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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